How Does MLB’s Best Team Improve? Breaking Down The Trade Deadline

IKF’s fielding woes and anemic offense make the “defensive specialist” a prime upgrade candidate (Robert Sabo)

We’ve beaten it to death at this point. The 2022 Yankees are the best team in baseball. At 64-28 with a +199 run differential, they’re off to one of the best starts in franchise history, and the best start in MLB in more than two decades (in fact, they’re one of only six teams to start this well since integration). Even though the Yankees have only lost four games by four or more runs, they are not undefeated, which means there is room for improvement. To identify where this room for improvement is, let’s begin by examining how the Yankees have fared at each position this year (stats as of the All Star break).

BREAKING: Good team ranks well at numerous positions (Stats via Fangraphs)

I’ll admit it right now. This table is misleading. Joey Gallo and Marwin Gonzalez have combined to play 275 innings in RF, but their less-than-stellar production from that spot is covered up by phenomenal performances from Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Matt Carpenter. They’ve also combined for 413 innings in LF, but Aaron Hicks’s recent offensive resurgence to a 110 wRC+ level with above-average defense has buoyed the team’s stats at that position (this is not to mention a couple big games from Tim Locastro). The WAR total at 3B is so high thanks to elite defense from both Josh Donaldson and DJ LeMahieu, but it’s DJ’s offense that has propelled the wRC+ number to an above-average level. At catcher, Kyle Higashioka’s offensive woes mask Jose Trevino’s All Star performance, but the elite framing that both provide (and the state of catcher offense around the league) cements this unit as a top-5 tandem. Finally, defensive stats hate Anthony Rizzo this year, but he’s been one of the most valuable bats on the team and has performed well on defense historically. I’m not buying into his aggressively low WAR, and would point to Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Average ranking which has the Yankees’ 1B unit as the eighth-best in MLB.

Now that some of these confounding factors are out of the way, let’s evaluate where the Yankees stand to upgrade and who might be available at those positions, in order of how much the current occupants of those positions on the Yankees bother me.

#1. Shortstop

At this point, my disdain for Isiah Kiner-Falefa is exceedingly well-documented. Of the 50 shortstops with over 90 PA this year, IKF ranks 26th in fWAR, and could be credibly accused of being a compiler. On the basis of fWAR/PA, he ranks 29th, behind such luminaries as Johan Camargo, Matt Reynolds, Kyle Farmer, Elvis Andrus, Jorge Mateo, and Danny Mendick. What’s most disappointing about IKF is that he is exactly the player we knew he was. Although we were assaulted throughout the spring with stories of him training with Justin Turner’s personal hitting coach to build some positive launch angle into his swing, he’s been awful. There is only one qualified hitter with a lower ISO, his wRC+ is 84 (worse than Joey Gallo’s), and he has the sixth highest ground ball to fly ball ratio in MLB. Combine this with his average (at best) defense (29th out of 49 players with 110+ innings at SS in Fangraphs defensive runs above average, 37th in OAA, 16th in UZR/150, T-2 in errors, 41st in fielding percentage) and you’re left with a truly awful player, as discussed when I named him the team’s LVP on our most recent podcast. The Yankees are a very good team this year, and IKF has no place on a very good team. He’s one of the most difficult players to replace with a trade, though.

Enjoy - or, more accurately, cringe at - this compilation of IKF failing to make some plays.

Good trade candidates tend to be rentals (free agents after the current season) and tend not to be on contending teams. With that in mind, let’s evaluate the upcoming free agent class of shortstops to see who might be available.

Ignoring options (potential opt outs are not on the list), Spotrac lists 12 shortstops who will be free agents after this year. Let’s eliminate the guys who the Yankees definitely will not acquire.

Group 1: Already in NYY’s System

Jose Peraza

Group 2: Old, Bad, or Both

Alcides Escobar, Andrelton Simmons, Ehire Adrianza, Jonathan Villar

Group 3: Playing for a Contender

Didi Gregorius, Aledmys Diaz, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Franklin Barreto (AAA)

Group 4: Not Really Playing for a Contender but Very Unlikely to be Moved

Tim Anderson, who I don’t believe the Yankees would pair up on the left side of an infield with Josh Donaldson anyway.

Who’s left after this analysis? Good question. Jose Iglesias. That’s it. Iglesias has been fine this year. His wRC+ is 97, meaningfully better than what IKF has provided, though it takes the shine off his .300 average and .400 slugging because he plays in Coors. He’d be cheap, given that Colorado routinely gives away players for free and he’ll be 33 in January. He’s known to be a defensive wizard as well. It’s hard for me to get excited about him, but he’s the only guy who fits the traditional trade deadline mold at the position.

Many fans have advocated for the Yankees to trade for Joey Wendle or Ha-Seong Kim. Wendle only has 15 games at SS this year and has never played more than 198.2 innings at the position in a season, but the defensive metrics generally like him there, and he’s been a 109 wRC+ bat this year. I don’t know that I can be all that enthusiastic about a former Yankee Killer with little experience at the position as the shortstop for this team going into October, but I am confident he’d be an upgrade over IKF. It’s hard to say what the Marlins would want in return for Wendle, who has a mutual option for 2023, but I can’t imagine the haul demanded in return for 1.5 years (max) of a 32-year-old utility player on a team that is still rebuilding could be too high.

Kim is an interesting case. He may not become a free agent until 2026 and won’t turn 27 until this year’s playoffs. He hardly hit last year, but has been slightly better than league average (102 wRC+) this year, and is an elite defender at both SS and 3B. Given that he’d be a longer term solution, it’s not obvious he fits into the Yankees’ plans perfectly. His defensive versatility does mitigate some of that concern, though. The asking price would justifiably be high for Kim, as a young shortstop who may have figured out how to hit doesn’t come around too often, but I expect that the Yankees could get him without giving up Volpe, Peraza, or Dominguez.

Ultimately, Kim is the guy I’d want from this group. We know the Padres like Gallo, and I don’t see any reason why a package of Gallo, Everson Pereira, a promising arm like Randy Vasquez or TJ Sikkema, and another prospect of San Diego’s choosing outside the org’s top-10 wouldn’t get this done.

I can’t believe I made it this far without mentioning that IKF doesn’t have a homer this year. Don’t worry, Kim and Wendle both have multiple, here’s proof.

#2. Left Field

The Yankees refuse to make Giancarlo Stanton a left fielder, and that’s fine by me. Aaron Judge has proven to be more than adequate as a defender in CF, and has stayed healthy to this point in the season in spite of the larger burden he’s carrying on defense. This, in theory, expands the pool of legitimate trade options to put in left field.

Obviously Juan Soto is the guy I want, but I’ve repeatedly said that I don’t think the Nationals are even going to trade him. Would YOU want to go down in history as the guy who traded Juan Soto? Didn’t think so. Even if he is legitimately on the market, it’s hard for me to see the Yankees paying Washington’s asking price, and they certainly don’t want to take on Patrick Corbin’s salary, which Washington is allegedly going to demand of the team that lands Soto.

Spotrac lists over 40 outfielders who will be free agents after this year, so we won’t go through the same exercise we did for shortstops, but here’s a collection of guys I wouldn’t mind if they became available, organized by how much I like them.

Tier 1: Yes Please

Joc Pederson (SF would have to have a very bad next couple weeks)

Tier 2: Not The Worst Idea

David Peralta, Mitch Haniger (Seattle would have to collapse too)

Tier 3: Not Actually An Upgrade

AJ Pollock, Chad Pinder

Tier 4: Unvaccinated

Andrew Benintendi

For all the talk about the strength of the outfielder market, this group kind of sucks. Pederson is the only guy who really gets me pumped up, and Peralta is the only other guy in this group with a wRC+ over 100. Maybe it would be possible to pry 1.5 years of Jurickson Profar from San Diego as part of the trade I described above involving Gallo and Kim, but he’s hard to get too pumped up about as well.

I’ve seen a lot of people suggest that the Yankees’ top target in the outfield should be Ian Happ, the Cubs’ switch-hitting left fielder who’s in the midst of his best season ever. The price for Happ would be high, but the Yankees would get control of him for 2023 as well, and they have some history of making deals with the Cubs (Chapman, Rizzo). Given the price difference, I still think the best move would be to root against the Giants and try to get Joc, but I’d be very happy for the Yankees to land Happ.

In either case, the Yankees could jettison Joey Gallo, which is probably necessary at this point (I’m sorry Joey, I held out as long as I could), and turn Aaron Hicks into a true fourth outfielder, both of which are worthy goals.

Here’s a compilation of opposite field hits by Joc, because people complain about Gallo’s insistence on pulling the ball, and triples by Ian Happ because I don’t see any reason not to include those.

#3. Bullpen Arm

The Yankees have a phenomenal bullpen. Led by Clay Holmes and Mike King, Yankees relievers have compiled the most fWAR in the AL and are second in MLB in ERA. Jonathan Loaisiga is back, and we should expect him to be an impact reliever by season’s end. Zack Britton will return, and I hope he contributes to this team. Even Albert Abreu has thrown some strong innings. Of the healthy bullpen arms today, Aroldis Chapman is likely the only one I don’t trust.

With Holmes, Loaisiga, King, and potentially even Abreu pitching well, the Yankees have a wealth of options when it comes to guys who I trust to face elite right-handed hitters. They can supplement that depth with Ron Marinaccio and Clarke Schmidt if necessary, before even considering giving the ball to Miguel Castro (who is nasty when he’s on). I feel less confident about the bullpen’s lefties. Wandy Peralta has been great this year, but his peripherals suggest he’s due to give up some homers, even if his ERA shouldn’t move out of the low 3’s. Lucas Luetge has been nails at times this year, but his platoon splits are significant and I don’t know that he’d be my go-to guy in a high-leverage situation, especially given the three batter minimum rule. No one should trust Aroldis Chapman, so who does that leave? JP Sears? Zack Britton once he returns? The Yankees would be wise to pursue a left-handed reliever.

Taylor Rogers would be a great fit, but I have trouble seeing San Diego deal a high-leverage reliever given that they occupy a playoff spot right now. Old friend Justin Wilson is certainly not the move. Daniel Norris has been terrible. Sean Doolittle would be a lovely option if he weren’t on the 60-day IL. Frankly, there’s not an obvious lefty option among the rental relievers. Of course, Clay Holmes and Joely Rodriguez weren’t on my radar last year, so I’ll let Brian Cashman and Matt Blake work their magic. Of the areas where the Yankees could bolster the bullpen, though, this is the one I prefer.

#4. Starting Pitcher

Much like the bullpen staff, the starters have been phenomenal this year. Led by… really all five of the guys, the staff is second in the AL in fWAR from starters, and third in MLB in ERA and xFIP from starters. This group is incredibly good.

I’ll say it from the beginning like I did with Soto. I don’t see the Yankees paying Cincy’s price for Luis Castillo. Even though Castillo is terrific and would be under team control next season as well, he’s going to cost a pretty penny from a prospect haul perspective. It’ll be hard to get him without parting with Volpe or Peraza, both of whom it’s widely understood the Yankees intend to keep. He’d be a welcome addition, and I hope the Yankees would move to sign him if it sounds like he’s coming too close to ending up in LA or Houston, but I’m not optimistic that we see him in pinstripes this season.

Similarly, it’s hard for me to imagine the Yankees getting Frankie Montas. Montas is following up an elite 2021 with a comparable season, and the A’s are not going to contend this year or next year. Pair that with their history of never resigning or extending anyone, and Montas is sure to be dealt at some point. There’s less risk of Montas ending up in Houston, given that Oakland likely isn’t interested in trading him within the division, and he’d be a significant addition to the rotation. The A’s will not be shy about their asking price either. In 2017, they got three of NYY’s top-10 prospects, including two ranked in MLB’s top-100, in exchange for Sonny Gray. Montas’s 2021 season was better than any season Gray had posted before he was traded, and although the Yankees would be trading for one fewer season of control (they would’ve had 2.5 seasons of Sonny Gray if they hadn’t traded him), the A’s would want a nice haul that I’m not sure the Yankees would be willing to offer.

There aren’t too many exciting rental options who aren’t employed by contenders either. Matt Boyd is hardly a starter anymore, so while he’d be an average-ish arm, he’s unlikely to eat more innings than, say, JP Sears, and is unlikely to be any more effective. Old friend Michael Pineda has been awful this year. Wade Miley has been hurt.

I’d say it’s worth giving the Rangers a call about Martin Perez. He’ll regress in the second half, though he shouldn’t do so massively, and he’s been a good innings-eater in the past. Sure, his asking price will never be higher than it is today, but the Yankees have a history of trades with Texas, the Rangers have not extended him despite having had the option to do so all season, and it’s a rental of a pitcher on the wrong side of 30. I’m confident the Yankees could get this done for a few prospects in the 6-15 range. The Rangers also have Matt Moore, who’s been a very effective left-handed reliever this year. I’d love to see the Yankees land a package of Perez and Moore, and I wouldn’t mind them paying up for it.

I would not advise the Yankees to pursue Dallas Keuchel, even though Arizona would probably pay them to take him.

Because I’ve been emphasizing a need for left-handed arms, here’s a compilation of Perez and Moore striking out some good left-handed batters.

I’d be very surprised if the Yankees made moves at any positions other than these four, and really do not expect them to get a shortstop. It’s easy to see the path to an outfielder, a starter, and a reliever, but I think a sane person could convince himself the rotation and the outfield are fine. Don’t be surprised if a reliever you’ve never heard of (think Joely Rodriguez) is the only trade deadline acquisition by the Yankees.

The roadmap I’ve laid out is simple, though. Kim, Happ, Perez, Moore, World Series.

Let’s go Yankees.