Turns Out We’re Not Doing This Again: Thoughts on a Historically Good First Half
Sources are telling me this guy is pretty good (AP Photo)
After the Yankees started 5-5, I sincerely asked if we were “doing this again,” referring to building a very good roster and proceeding to underachieve massively. As I write this, the Yankees are 54-18 (.750) since then. That seems like a pretty convincing answer. No, we are not “doing this again.”
If you’re reading this, you probably know that the Yankees are one of a select few teams to win at least 59 of their first 82 games. They’re one of just four teams to do so since 1970, and one of just 13 teams in baseball history to do so. They’ve achieved this in spite of the fact that they couldn’t hit early in the season. They lost a series in Baltimore (Whipple is a curse). They pitched phenomenally but seemed allergic to scoring runs. Everything has changed since then. Did they flip a switch? Did guys just take a couple weeks to click? Did the regression to the mean I have been talking about for a year and a half hit all at once? It’s tough to say. Really, though, I’m not worried about the answers to those questions. I’m worried about trying to contextualize how it feels to be a fan of the best team in baseball.
In 2019 the Yankees made a run at baseball’s best record (in that season, not ever), but I don’t think we were ever under the impression that they were truly the best team. Hell, Mike Ford and Mike Tauchman combined to play 137 games, and their playoff starters included JA Happ and a bullpen game. It was cool that they won so often, and winning the division was great, but that team had a lot of missing pieces. Giancarlo Stanton, Jordan Montgomery, and Luis Severino hardly saw the field, Greg Bird and Troy Tulowitzki started on opening day, an early-season injury to Clint Frazier felt devastating (maybe that one’s just me).
The start of the 2018 season was awesome, and that team, for about 55 games, was just a rung below this one. Of course, we know what happened after Aaron Judge broke his hand. That team still won 100 games, but they weren’t even the class of their division.
So what do we look back to? 2009? Maybe! But even in 2009, they lost a ton of games to Boston early in the year, and their grip on first place was tenuous until August.
This team does not have a great historical analog, at least not one I can relate to. The 1998 team started 62-20, but we know they were operating on another plane of existence. It’s not fair to compare any team to that one. This team won exactly half the number of games in the first half that the 2001 Mariners won in their whole season… but that team lost to the Yankees in the playoffs, and I hardly remember them.
Honestly, I think the most valuable basis for comparison I have, because of the similarity of the rosters and because Hoodie Allen asked that I do so, is the 2021 team.
I hate to do this to you. We’re going to reminisce a bit about the 2021 team. Yep, the one that was addicted to hitting ground balls, the one that made an incredible run to cement its grasp on a playoff spot, and then did everything in its power to give that spot away. The one that was occasionally buoyed by transcendent performances from Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton, or that escaped tight situations with triple plays.
The 2021 Yankees were enigmatic. The first major similarity they shared with the 2022 team is that they were capable of looking like the best team in the world at any given time. That team started 5-10, sure, but then went on a 23-9 (.719) run. After a 41-41 start, that team played at a 103-win pace for the rest of the season. They were able to do so thanks in large part to a 13-game winning streak in August (during which they only made up 2.5 games in the division, inexplicably).
This leads us to the first major difference between that team and this team. The 2021 Yankees followed up a 13-game winning streak with a stretch in which they lost 12 out of 15 games. It was embarrassing. They more than gave away the ground they had gained. At 76-52, they had the second-best record in the AL, and led the Wild Card standings by three games. After a disappointing game against the Mets (you know which), they were 79-64 and had fallen out of a playoff spot.
Of course, it’s too early to say, but we’ve not seen the 2022 team do something like that. This year’s team has only lost three series. They lost a three game series to Baltimore in April, which inspired me to ask if nothing had changed from 2021. Over a month later, they lost a series at home to the White Sox (still the only home series they’ve lost all year). They didn’t lost another series until losing one game at Houston on June 30, and it’s not even clear to me that counts as a series. First, it’s only one game. Second, it is one game of a series that was broken up and scattered throughout the year to accommodate the season’s late start. But for the sake of argument, let’s say it was a series loss. In that case, the Yankees have lost one series each month. They lost three series in the first half of the season. That would suggest the Yankees will lose six series in the regular season. The sixth series loss for the 2021 team, a team that made the playoffs, came on May 30. That’s insane!
Let’s talk about another major difference. This team hits, and that starts with Aaron Judge. You might point out that Aaron Judge was good last year. Yeah, not like this. Through 82 team games last year, Judge was hitting .284/.379/.523 for a 146 wRC+ and had 19 homers. Through 82 team games this year, Judge makes the version of himself from 2021 look like a pathetic baby, slashing .287/.366/.627 for a 175 wRC+ with 30 (!!!) homers. Of course, it’s not all about Judge. He was great last year, and is transcendent this year. Plenty of guys were terrible last year who have been very good this year. Let’s take a look at a few of them.
Crazy what happens when you make major upgrades at five lineup spots.
As you can see, there are a number of areas in which the Yankees have made major upgrades, and they’ve done so in a few different ways. First, Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu have rediscovered their identities as productive offensive players. In Gleyber’s case, we can attribute this to a career high xwOBA, which is supported by high career highs in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard hit rate. His improved quality of contact, plummeting ground ball rate, and skyrocketing fly ball rate have all contributed to his resurgent offensive performance. If he keeps this up, thanks to the depressed offensive environment (hate you Rob Manfred), Gleyber will post the best offensive season of his career by wRC+. At a glance, it’s much harder to determine what has shot DJ’s xwOBA up to its highest level since his 2016 NL batting champion season, but I’m cool with it! His xSLG is also higher than it has been since 2019, and it’s a lot of fun when he flashes power.
DJ LeMahieu! TIE GAME!!! pic.twitter.com/W1U7Aj2lnn
— YES Network (@YESNetwork) June 26, 2022
Even the much-maligned Aaron Hicks has been much better this year than he was in his limited action last year. The changes are also major at first base and third base. Anthony Rizzo, of course, is a significant upgrade over the Jay Bruce/Mike Ford/Chris Gittens mess that the Yankees put forth last year. Finally, as much as I love Gio Urshela, and as disappointing as aspects of Donaldson’s offensive performance have been, JD has been a significant upgrade at that position.
So we know this team has separated itself by hitting much better than last year’s team. We also know the pitching has been dominant. What’s interesting here is that last year’s pitching was very good, and it is blown out of the water by this year’s staff. Through 83 team games last year, the Yankees’ staff ranked tied for fourth in MLB with 12 fWAR from pitchers. That’s great! They were second in the AL in that stat, striking out plenty of guys, and not walking many. Thus far this year, they lead the league in fWAR from pitchers with 12.9, a lead of 2.3 fWAR over the next AL staff. They also lead the league in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. This staff is simply dominant.
What happens when you mix elite offense with generational run suppression? Run differential. Last year, the Yankees finished 92-70, but their Pythagorean win-loss record was just 86-76 due to their +42 run differential. Basically, the Yankees lucked into six wins last year. This year, the Yankees already have a +175 run differential, and are getting unlucky relative to their 60-22 Pythagorean win-loss record. It’s almost unbelievable that this team can be as good as it is and still somehow be underperforming relative to what they “deserve.”
The 2022 Yankees are a ton of fun. They are the best regular season team I can consciously remember. They are, as my grandmother likes to say, playing like the Yankees. There’s hardly been a game it felt like they couldn’t, or wouldn’t, win. Let’s go have a great series at Fenway.
