Twice as Nice: Analyzing the Resurgence of the Yankee Second Basemen
Having two second basemen has worked out well for the Yankees in 2022 (Getty).
Coming into the 2022 season, there were many questions surrounding the New York Yankees after their disappointing 2021 season. In 2021, many players performed below expectations, which nearly pulled the Yankees out of a playoff spot. For the Yankees to rebound in 2022, players would have to outperform their expectations rather than underachieve. Although there have been many players on this year’s Yankees who have yet again underperformed (looking at you, Joey Gallo), the team’s success has been largely because the majority of their roster has performed to expectations or outperformed projections. This is most evident with the team’s offense. After a winter where the major offensive upgrades were Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner Falefa, both of whom have disappointed, it was incumbent upon many of the returning hitters to bounce back. The fate of this year’s team hinged upon these players (to an uncomfortably high degree) but the Yankees’ faith has been rewarded via an offensive resurgence by these players. Two players in particular have been especially important in the success of the 2022 Yankees offense relative to last year. Two players who in fact, play the same primary position. In the year 2022, it’s the two players at position number 2 (second base) who are the keys to the resurgent Yankee offense.
In 2021, DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres were coming off wildly different seasons. The 2020 version of DJ LeMahieu was in many ways even better than his 2019 season. In 50 games, he hit .364/.421/.590 with 10 home runs, winning the batting title and coming in third in the MVP voting. The shortened season makes it hard to know how his full season line would have held up, but DJ’s ability to hit for average combined with an increase in power made it a priority for the Yankees to re-sign him for six years and $90 million. Meanwhile, after a 38 home run 2019 season, Gleyber Torres was coming off a disappointing 2020 season, which, coincidentally or not, was his first at shortstop. His power completely vanished, as he hit only 3 home runs over 42 games and saw his home run rate drop from 6.3% to 1.9%. Despite their varying 2020 performances, the 2021 preseason Fangraphs ZIPS projections were astonishingly similar for LeMahieu and Torres. ZIPS saw a bounceback in store for Gleyber, projecting him for a 4.3 WAR, which would have stood as a career best in his age 24 season. ZIPS was more pessimistic on DJ, projecting him for a 4.0 WAR, below his 2019 and 2020 paces. With projected improvement for Gleyber and projected continued excellence for DJ, it seemed assured that these players would be key contributors for the 2021 Yankees.
Unfortunately, the regression of DJ LeMahieu and the complete collapse of Gleyber Torres’s offensive game were two major reasons why the 2021 Yankees were a disappointment. DJ’s OPS dropped 300 points and almost every underlying indicator moved in the wrong direction. His ground ball rate shot up, his hard hit rate dropped, and he hit less fly balls, leading to less home runs and a generally decreased power output. DJ’s 98 OPS+ was his worst since 2015 and his position at the top of the Yankees lineup killed many opportunities for run scoring. Gleyber’s 2021 saw a continued drop in power output combined with a regression in walk rate. The only saving grace from his poor 2020 season was a career best .356 OBP, but that dropped to a .331 OBP in 2021. Gleyber’s nine home runs led to a 93 OPS+, far and away a career worst for him. The anemic Yankees offense outside of Judge and Stanton had many causes, but having two players projected for 8.3 combined WAR actually accurate 2.3 combined WAR was perhaps the most notable of them. To make matters worse, Gleyber’s shortstop defense became so bad (18 errors and -9 Outs Above Average) that he was permanently removed from the position in September. While his bat and glove improved back at second, it threw the whole infield defense into flux (Wild Card game shortstop Andrew Velazquez is a phrase that never should exist). Along with DJ’s sports hernia that handicapped his movement in the field, it was a poor year both offensively and defensively for the Yankees middle infield.
So how did we get to the point where DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres are two of the top Yankees hitters once again? The preseason Fangraphs ZIPS projections had the pair combined for a 5.3 WAR and less than two thirds of the way through the season, the two hitters have a combined 4.8 Fangraphs WAR.Both players have an OPS above .800, which is almost 100 points better on average than their combined OPS from last year. By adjusted statistics, both players are also hitting at a comparable level to their 2019 performance. Let’s look at each player to see how they bounced back from rough 2021 seasons and what they’re doing to maintain success in 2022.
Gleyber Torres: Return to Fly Balls
When you hit 12 home runs in 595 at bats over two years after hitting 38 in 546 at bats the year before, it’s probably time for an approach change. The article that described Gleyber taking hitting advice from DJ in Spring 2021 will go down in infamy, but whatever happened to Gleyber’s approach in 2021 was corrected very quickly in 2022. In fact, Gleyber’s bat began to rebound midway through 2021. Consider this split.
From July 2021 to the end of the year, Gleyber put up numbers that were vastly improved from the first half of the year. The home run power was still down from 2019, but he hit as many home runs as he had in the previous 110 games while adding in more extra base hits to increase his slugging percentage by over 100 points. Gleyber Torres is never going to walk a lot, so any offensive improvements need to come from his slugging. In 2022, he has finally embraced that aggressive approach to post a line that, adjusted for offensive environment, is right in line with his 2018/2019 performance.
The power is back for Gleyber in a big way and this is directly attributable to changes in his offensive approach, which have translated into underlying statistical improvements. Let’s take a look at his Baseball Savant page to illustrate exactly what I’m referring to.
These two charts could not be more different. Torres is hitting the ball much harder than in 2021, which is the key difference in his performance. He is actually walking less, but has traded that for a more aggressive approach. In short, he’s selling out for more power and seeing massive benefits in his slugging statistics. When evaluating players, it’s important to remember that not every player derives value from the same players. Some players pair average and walk rate to accrue value, but some players derive value more from power. Gleyber Torres is one of those players. He’s never going to hit .300 or have a .400 on base percentage. What he can do is hit the ball hard and in 2022, he’s returned to that approach, sacrificing batting average and on base percentage points that aren’t necessary for his offensive value.
Finally, we can take a look at Gleyber’s offensive indicators as compared to last year’s numbers to see the direction of improvement (red up arrow means that the stat improved compared to last year and blue down arrow means it got worse). The only stat that has meaningfully decreased is his walk rate. We can see that Gleyber is hitting the ball hard, has an improved launch angle and is more aggressive in general (except for pitches in the zone, but only slightly). In short, Gleyber Torres has returned to his power hitting roots and his offense has improved tremendously because of it. At 25 years old, he still has years of potential improvement ahead of him as well. It’s an exciting development for a Yankees team that relies mostly on older players. Torres represents a player who might have his best years ahead of him still.
DJ LeMahieu: Barrels and Walks
When examining the underlying statistics behind Gleyber Torres’s 2022 improvement, the causes for improvement are evident. With DJ LeMahieu, not so much. The drop in his 2021 performance as compared to 2019-2020 were extremely obvious - DJ hit more ground balls and hit the ball less hard in general. Take a look at this chart to see a very troubling series of trend lines.
In 2019, the juiced ball year, DJ hit 28 home runs and put up power numbers that were universally career bests for him. Since then, he has regressed in almost every category. His 2021 indicators were slightly up in some areas compared to 2020, but down from 2019. DJ was walking more, but hitting for drastically less power and hitting the ball less hard. So logically, in 2022, the return to form for DJ would involve hitting the ball harder and regaining some of his lost power, right? Well, not exactly.
Unlike Gleyber's Savant charts, which showed a clear difference in performance, DJ’s 2021 and 2022 Savant charts look remarkably similar. There are a few key differences that we need to focus on to show the path to improvement.
Walk rate - DJ LeMahieu has never been one to take a lot of walks, especially pre 2021 - his career walk rate was 7.3% before then. Since the beginning of last year, his walk rate has been 11.8%, which has increased his value in a new way. DJ is now in the 96th percentile of the league for walk rate, which has increased his utility as a weapon at the top of the Yankees lineup.
Barrel percentage - DJ has never been at the top of the league in “barreling” up the ball, which means hitting a batted ball with the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle. Barrels usually translate into extra base hits, which means a power increase. Indeed, DJ’s expected slugging has taken a huge leap from last year and accordingly, his actual slugging percentage has risen almost 50 points.
Outs Above Average - This isn’t related to his bat, but I thought it was notable to point out. DJ has historically been a great defender, ranking in the top 5% in MLB for OAA every year from 2017-2019 (I refuse to acknowledge defensive stats from the 60 game 2020 season). The big exception came in 2021, when he was only in the 63rd percentile, hindered by his sports hernia. This year, DJ’s defense is back in a big way, as his OAA mark is in the 97th percentile of MLB. Combined with his ability to play multiple positions, it’s safe to say that DJ’s versatility is a big part of the Yankees’ improved infield.
These are the three areas of improvement for DJ in 2022, but his other indicators actually suggest that he has gotten worse in some offensive areas.
DJ’s exit velocity, launch angle and hard hit rate are actually all down from last season. He is hitting the ball on the ground more and hitting less fly balls and line drives. This should all be concerning, but every expected statistic shows that DJ has meaningfully improved from last year. So how do we reconcile this? For one, it shows that DJ got a bit unlucky last season and is playing more in line with his underlying stats. It also shows that he has unlocked value in a new way by walking more, and combining this with expected regression to the mean and an increased barrel rate that has boosted his slugging, has used small improvements to boost his total offensive package. Unlike Gleyber, DJ has not completely transformed his approach, but rather improved in certain areas to get back to being the 2019-2020 hitter that provided a lot of value to the Yankees.
When looking at the 2022 Yankees lineup, it’s easy to be drawn in by the flashy statistics of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo. These three hitters are the core of the lineup, as their massive power numbers provide the foundation for a successful offensive attack. However, a lineup has nine hitters and as the 2021 Yankees demonstrated, if the key players have no support, the team isn’t going to get very far. In 2022, DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres provided that support, albeit in different ways, and deepened the Yankees lineup to make it one of the best in the league yet again. It’s only fitting that the two second basemen are leading the way for the Yankees in the year of the “2” and the team’s October success will hinge on if their success continues into the playoffs.
