Rapid Fire Thoughts: The Season’s Over
Gerrit Cole only recorded 6 outs on Tuesday, putting the Yankees behind the 8-ball early (Winslow Townson / Getty Images)
Relying On Getting Hot In The Playoffs Does Not Work
The Yankees ranked 17th in the league in runs per game this year. From 2017-2020, they never ranked outside the top four in baseball in that statistic. It was their first time ranking below average in runs per game since 2016, when they missed the playoffs. They were eliminated by a top-4 run scoring offense.
Only five of 14 Yankees with 150+ PA this year (as Yankees) were league average or better this year by wRC+. DJ LeMahieu was perfectly average, and Rizzo, Voit, Stanton, and Judge were all better than average. Gary Sanchez, Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier, Gio Urshela, Gleyber Torres, and Joey Gallo, who were all between 8% and 44% above average in their last full season (2019) were below average hitters this year. That goes a long way toward explaining this team’s inability to score runs.
Why did we think they would suddenly remember how to hit in the playoffs? Because we aren’t smart (like all baseball people).
Bring Back the Juiced Ball
Is it any coincidence that in the season when the baseball was de-juiced, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton once again emerged as top offensive performers in the league? I don’t think so. Guys who hit the ball a million miles per hour with regularity are not going to see a ton of regression due to the rocket ball’s absence. Guys like Torres, LeMahieu, and Urshela, who hit for surprising power in recent years thanks (apparently) in large part to the juiced ball, regressed massively.
Remember those projections that had Gleyber as a 40+ home run guy? Yeah, me too. Those were fun times.
Put The Best Guys On The Field
The Yankees had some injuries at the end of the year that prevented this, Hell, Andrew Velazquez started the Wild Card Game, but they did not use the Death Star lineup even once. Would it have been that hard to give us this?
C. Gary
1B. Rizzo
2B. DJ
3B. Gio
SS. Gleyber
LF. Gallo
CF. Judge
RF. Stanton
DH. Voit
Turns out the answer was yes. It’s malpractice to fail to put the best guys on the field when the team can’t score. I know some people would complain that this lineup is too right handed… but isn’t that better than it having Rougned Odor, Brett Gardner, and Tyler Wade in it?
End Personal Catchers
Gary Sanchez’s season is definitely buoyed by the crazy-strong couple of months he had from late April to late June, but he was so much better offensively than Kyle Higashioka this year that, on a team that had so much trouble scoring runs, running Higgy out there as often as they did, especially as the personal catcher for guys who often were not pitching great anyway, was a bad strategic move. Would the Yankees have stuck with Higgy for Cole (and Kluber) if Salvy, Posey, Realmuto, or Will Smith had been the other option behind the plate? I wonder. It was inexcusable that the Yankees continued to put a guy whose offensive production was on the level of that of many pitchers as often as they did.
Ground Ball Guys Rule
It’s no coincidence that Jonathan Loaisiga and Clay Holmes were the best relievers on the team this year. They throw ridiculously hard, heavy sinkers and guys have a ton of trouble elevating the ball against them. We remember when Chien Ming Wang employed this strategy very well as a starting pitcher.
Expensive Relievers Are Overrated
Chad Green, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Lucas Luetge, who made less than $3.5 million combined this year, were all in the top-22 in the league in reliever fWAR, with Loaisiga fourth in the league. This is not to mention the 1.61 ERA AND 0.9 fWAR Clay Holmes posted as a Yankee after the deadline, good for 1.5x Aroldis Chapman’s fWAR in half the innings.
Was Chapman good this year? Sure, good enough. His 3.36 ERA is not incredible, but his 30 saves are not horrible for a closer on a team that won 92 games. His 4 blown saves matched his 2017 total, and beat his 5 from 2019. Was he worth $16 million? I wouldn’t say so. Add to this that Zack Britton was a non-factor, and the Yankees got very little value from their $30 million combined boys this year.
Luis Severino Is Back
Sevy lost it a bit in his second inning of work in the Wild Card game, but he was really good coming off the IL late in the regular season. I’m very excited to see him in the second spot in the rotation next April.
Gerrit Cole Was Hurt
Prior to the sticky stuff enforcement date, Gerrit Cole had a 2.31 ERA.
In his next 7 starts, he had a 4.87 ERA.
In his next 4 starts, he had a 0.73 ERA.
He then came out early due to a hamstring issue in his start against Toronto in the Bronx. After that start, he pitched to an ERA over 6.00 in his last 4 games, and got only 6 outs in the Wild Card game.
There’s a pretty clear narrative to me. Cole was dominant when comfortable, took some time to adjust to the sticky stuff ban, and got hurt right when he was comfortable again. There’s no way he was 100% on Tuesday, but I still needed him to be better.
Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge Rule
It wasn’t the 100 homer, 300 RBI combined performance we have all dreamed of (that will have to wait for next year), but to see the two big boys combine for 74 homers and 195 RBI while staying healthy for the vast majority of the year was a ton of fun. May we see it many more times.
Extend Aaron Judge please.
10 Offseason Priorities
Extend Aaron Judge for however many years he wants and however many dollars he wants.
Recognize that going over the luxury tax threshold is necessary in order to put together the team you want.
Find a way not to employ Darren O’Day or (sadly) Zack Britton next year.
Figure out the infield. Is Gleyber the long-term 2B? If so, what happens to Gio and DJ? Is the long-term shortstop in the organization (Peraza, Volpe, a combo of them both)? If so, can Gleyber and Gio cover that spot in the interim? If not, who do the Yankees prefer out of Corey Seager, Trevor Story and Carlos Correa (excuse me while I vomit) Who plays 1B? Luke Voit? Do you give a guy on the wrong side of 30 a multi-year deal to retain Rizzo after what just happened with DJ?
Decide on a CF. It’s tough to see the Yankees interested in bringing Brett Garder back after this year. If Aaron Hicks is healthy, he should be the guy, but are we really not convinced Florial could fill Gardner’s role? I think it’s time to give him a chance.
Line up a starting rotation. After Cole and Sevy, how does it shake out? The early shoo-ins appear to be Montgomery, Taillon, and Nestor. Is Mike King a full-time reliever, or was he just not stretched out? Does Clarke Schmidt have a future on this staff? What about Luis Gil, Luis Medina, and Deivi Garcia? Is there a need to look outside the organization for depth? What’s the willingness to pay if there is?
Make a catching plan. I’m still not sold that the Yankees should move on from Gary Sanchez, and they can retain him for what should not be a ton of money in his third year of arbitration in 2022. What happens after that? I don’t see them extending him at 29 (though it may be a mistake not to). Are Donny Sands and Josh Breaux ready? They’re both going to be Rule 5 eligible, so the Yankees may have to take a look at adding one of them to the 40-man.
Prepare Albert Abreu to be a high-leverage reliever. I’m a sucker for guys with crazy stuff, and Abreu is definitely one of those. Put him on the Jonathan Loaisiga remediation program and turn him into another weapon out of the bullpen.
Make a sacrifice to please the BABIP gods. The Yankees were tied for second in the league in average exit velocity on batted balls, but 17th in slugging and 23rd in BABIP. Having the 12th-highest ground ball rate didn’t help these stats, but come on.
Put yourself in the best position to win the World Series. The Yankees have accepted flawed rosters in a number of ways in recent years. From a lack of pitching depth, to a heavily right-handed team, to a roster that includes Andrew Heaney, we’ve seen them accept a number of suboptimal characteristics. Go all out. Win the World Series.
Bonus: Decide what you’re going to do with Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar.
It was a fun season (no it wasn’t) and we really enjoyed covering it (some of the time) so we’re looking forward to an interesting offseason that brings us a lot to discuss.
