Anatomy Of A Resurgence: How Two Large Men (And One Small Turtle) Carried The Yankees To The Brink Of The Playoffs
Giancarlo Stanton’s heroics have played a massive role in allowing the Yankees to surge back into the Wild Card lead (Charles Wenzelberger / NY Post)
The Yankees saw their playoff odds, per Fangraphs, bottom out at about 24% in mid-July. At that time, they were 46-44 and 9 games out of the lead in the AL East. Since then, the Yankees have gone 45-24 (that’s a 105-win pace) and boosted their playoff odds up over 96%.
This season has been exactly as up and down as Whipple claims on every podcast (Fangraphs)
I’m not so interested in the fact that the Yankees have experienced a very reasonable regression to the mean over their last 69 games. I’m very interested in what has happened since September 19th, when the Yankees’ playoff chances fell to 28.9% after getting blown out by Cleveland for the second straight day. Since then, Nestor Cortes adopted a turtle and the Yankees have won eight of their last nine games. 5 of those wins have come in Boston and Toronto, and the Yankees have gone from trailing those teams by 2.5 and 1.5 games respectively to the edge of capturing home field in the Wild Card game.
How did this happen though? When the Yankees were faced with 12 critical games, how did they suddenly play their best baseball?
1. New Blood
Despite my many complaints about Mike King (and our Twitter followers know I have complained about Mike King a lot), I will concede that he’s been terrific since returning from the IL. His ERA since he came back is 1.23, he has pitched more than an inning in every appearance, he has racked up 2 wins in that time, and he’s only given up two earned runs in nearly 15 innings. According to FIP and xFIP, he’s probably getting a little lucky, but he’s been awesome. His average fastball has been 95 MPH or higher in 3 of his appearances since returning from the IL, a mark he had not previously eclipsed all year, and he’s getting more swings at pitches out of the zone than he did earlier in the season, and walking far fewer batters. This is exactly the version of Mike King the Yankees needed to add to a depleted bullpen.
Remember Luis Severino? The two-time All-Star who posted top-10 Cy Young voting finishes in back-to-back seasons in 2017 and 2018? I sure do. As Whipple and I discussed on the pod, we were going to find it quite surprising if Sevy came back and looked like “that guy” again, but he kind of does. Obviously he cannot yet be asked to take on a starter’s workload, but Sevy has been electric since returning to the mound for the Yankees for the first time since game 3 of the 2019 ALCS.
Sevy has four scoreless appearances since coming off the IL, accounting for six scoreless innings. He has struck out eight batters in that time, walked just one, and allowed only two hits. In his most recent appearance against Toronto, his average fastball velocity reached 97 MPH, and he was getting a ton of swings at pitches outside the zone. In this small sample, Sevy looks a lot like the guy we knew and loved. Guys are chasing pitches at about his career average rate (but making way less contact when they do so), he’s throwing a ton of first-pitch strikes, and guys are swinging and missing more than they ever have. We always implicitly knew Sevy could be a weapon out of the bullpen solely based on stuff, and now we are seeing that.
2. Clutch Bombs
I wonder which half of the Yankees Files duo it was who said all year that the Yankees needed to hit more home runs. Since September 20th, the Yankees lead the AL in home runs, slugging, and wRC+ despite being perfectly league average in BABIP. They are not getting lucky, but rather punishing the baseball. They’ve done this in spite of posting the AL’s third-highest strikeout rate in that span too. Why? Because strikeout rate is not important. Just had to get that in there.
It’s hard to score runs by getting a bunch of hits in a row. Pitchers are simply too good, and batted balls are simply too predictable, to have the required BABIP luck to string a bunch of singles together and create a big inning. Home runs don’t rely on any of that, and the Yankees have taken masterful advantage of that fact recently. The Yankees had six hits on Thursday in their win over Robbie Ray and the Jays. Of those six hits, five were home runs and one was an infield single. Had those results been reversed (one homer and five infield hits), the Yankees would have lost. The best teams have the best offenses, and the best offenses hit the most homers. Please enjoy this reel of clutch bombs that the Yankees have hit recently.
As you certainly observed, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are the main characters in that video. Stanton’s go-ahead homers in back-to-back-to-back games catapulted the Yankees into the lead in the wild card race.
Stanton’s power surge extends far beyond this recent 8-1 stretch. Since the beginning of September, he ranks 11th among qualified hitters in the AL in wRC+, fifth in slugging, and tied for second in homers. Since the 8-1 stretch began, he is fourth in the AL in wRC+ and slugging, and first in homers.
One of the people standing between Giancarlo Stanton and the leads in those stats over this recent stretch is Aaron Judge. While Judge is just 25th in the AL in wRC+ since September began, his 10 homers tie him with Stanton in that span, and he is in the top-10 in slugging. And while Stanton’s performance over the last nine games might be more dramatic, there’s an argument that Judge’s has been better, as he outpaces Stanton in both slugging and wRC+ in that time. For almost four seasons, we as fans have waited to see these two mash at the same time. Injuries, COVID, slumps, and any number of other factors have prevented them from doing so for a while, but now we are getting to enjoy two MVP-caliber players setting the world on fire at once. It rules.
3. Fun Differential
The Yankees had a +23 run differential on the year at the conclusion of play on September 19th. As of today, they have a +52 run differential. It’s not very impressive, ranking fourth in the AL East, and is only 7 runs better than their 60-game run differential last year. It’s barely 25% of their +204 run differential from 2019. With all that said, they’ve played to a +29 run differential in their last 9 games. That’s very good. It has taken some stress of the bullpen (but only some) and allowed guys like Sevy and King to settle back into their roles without being in the highest possible leverage situations. Also, as I alluded to, it’s more fun this way. The Yankees have played their fair share of nail-biting games this year, and I don’t need any more of those in my life. Comfy wins are nice, and the run differential recently reflects that the Yankees have found a way to win some games comfortably.
4. Arms
The pitching staff has buoyed the Yankees all year, bailing out their sputtering offense more than a few times. From Gerrit Cole’s Cy Young campaign, to Corey Kluber’s no-hitter, to Nestor Cortes’s unbelievable year, the Yankees have been graced with more their fair share of incredible pitching performances.
The recent hot streak, though it has been full of offensive highlights, has been buoyed by pitching as well. The Yankees lead baseball in fWAR from pitchers since September 20th. They’re also second in the AL in that span with a 2.80 ERA, and lead the world in FIP by more than half a run (ok, now you can blame defense for something). They’re hardly walking anyone, positioning themselves as the lone staff with a BB/9 under 2 since September 20th, an indicator of their well-rounded performance.
What’s most interesting to me about the way the pitchers have fared in this stretch is that, like the batters, it’s not evident that they’re getting lucky. They seem to be pitching very well. They have been the best staff in the league by multiple measures while still allowing a league average BABIP. That’s the sign of sustainable success, and I love it.
5. Italians
Did you see the massive homer Tony Rizzo hit on Thursday? What about Giancarlo Stanton’s catch at the wall? What about Gallo’s homer against Texas? What about honorary-Italian Nestor Cortes shoving in every game he’s pitched this year? Huh? Fugeddaboutit! I’m walkin’ here! Macaroni! Gabagool!
Whoa, not sure what happened there. Here are some recent highlights from the many Italians on this year’s roster.
Get those fellas some calamari (pronounced galamad).
Parting Shots
As we move into the season’s final 3 games, keep an eye out for a few things.
I’ve said the batting success looks sustainable because it does not appear to be based on luck. Do the Yankees continue to slug in their series at home against Tampa?
The Rays have clinched home field advantage throughout the AL Playoffs, but are still scheduled to start McClanahan, Baz, and Wacha against the Yankees. Do they do it? Do they sit any position players?
The Yankees control their own destiny and can clinch home field advantage in the Wild Card game tonight with a win and a Boston loss. If the Yankees clinch, what do the lineups on Saturday and Sunday look like?
Are we ever going to see Domingo German? He’s on the roster but has not appeared in a a game since being activated from the IL.
Luke Voit is on the IL and DJ LeMahieu is dealing with a hip issue. If he has to go on the IL, who do the Yankees call up? Are we on Miguel Andujar watch?
Does Bronxie have a seat in the dugout in Yankee Stadium?
Let’s hope the Bombers lock down a home playoff game tonight. If they do, Whipple will see you in the Bronx.
Let’s go Yankees.
