Wait A Second… The Yankees Are Good???

Thoughts
Written By Will Harris

This guy has been a massive part of the Yankees’ early success (Charles Wenzelberg / New York Post)

The Yankees are 8-4, tied for the second best record in baseball, and have won every series they’ve played this year. Things are going very well.

Coming into Wednesday’s game against the Guardians, the Yankees were undefeated in games that did not feature Domingo German or Clarke Schmidt, and winless in games that did. They bucked that trend today, despite some of the worst umpiring we’ve ever seen. Let’s get into five thoughts on what’s gone on so far.

1. Just as we all expected, Franchy Cordero is carrying the Yankees. He had a game-tying bomb of a home run today, and I hardly feel like I’ve seen him make an out. He’s got a 205 wRC+ and only trails Judge and Gleyber in fWAR despite having fewer PA than every regular. Let’s take a look at some of the damage he’s done this year.

This feels like it’s becoming a yearly tradition at this point. Matt Carpenter, Mike Tauchman, and a whole host of others have played this role for this team recently, and we shouldn’t expect it to last very long. Still, it’s great to have an unexpected contributor in the face of these early injuries, and it’s extra great to have a guy keep Aaron Hicks (or IKF) out of the lineup.

2. Give Anthony Volpe some time. The kid poked his second extra base hit of the year with a double in the first inning on Wednesday, and while he’s not showing a ton offensively (and hasn’t stolen a base since Whipple said he’d get to 50), he’s given us a lot to like.

He’s chased outside of the zone just 29.6% of the time, only a tick more than the famously disciplined Anthony Rizzo. He’s not too swing-happy, offering at about the same proportion of pitches he sees as Aaron Judge. It’s possible he could be more aggressive in the zone (Judge, Stanton, Gleyber, and Franchy all swing at more strikes than Volpe), but he’s middle of the pack there. He’s also middle of the pack at hitting the strikes he swings at, with his Z-Contact% slotted between Gleyber and the super-high-contact guys. His propensity to miss balls out of the zone knocks his overall contact rate down (not that this bothers me) so he’s not quite in “he can handle the bat” territory yet, but I’d rather see him spit on a few more of those pitches in pursuit of OBP and SLG. All told, especially when we account for his 12.5% walk rate, Volpe’s given us a lot to be optimistic about.

3. I love Oswaldo Cabrera. Everyone does! How can you not love Oswaldo Cabrera? Things are going to get worse for him offensively before they get better. Currently, Waldo is hitting .286/.297/.343 for a 75 wRC+ and striking out 12 times as often as he walks.

His expected stats are, frankly, disgusting. He’s rocking a .139 xBA and a .171 xSLG with a .150 xwOBA, but it’s early! So let’s not focus too much on those. His average exit velocity is up a couple of miles per hour over last year, but he’s lifting the ball a bit less than he used to, and by ‘a bit’ I mean ‘a lot.’ His .56 GB/FB ration last year has turned into 1.33 this year. That’s not a good trend, and explains part of the reason why I don’t expect his .417 BABIP to continue.

Waldo loves to swing. Sometimes that’s great! His aggressiveness definitely pays off at times, and plenty of really good players (Trea Turner, Rafael Devers, Marcus Semien, JD Martinez, Bryan Reynolds) swing more often than he does. Heck, he even chases less than almost all of those guys! As far as I can tell, Waldo gets himself in trouble by not being a threat to walk, having a higher tendency to take strikes than most swing-happy guys, getting behind in the count, and then making unimpressive contact as a result. Don’t get it twisted. Waldo just started his age-24 season and things will improve for him, but the process of teaching him to be a more disciplined hitter and to control his plate appearances might not be easy! He’s very endearing though, so I think we’ll find his struggles tolerable.

4. What can you say about this pitching staff that hasn’t already been said? 

The Yankees are basically down an entire All-Star team worth of pitchers (Severino, Rodon, Montas, Trivino, Kahnle, Effross, Loaisiga) and yet they’re third in the league in fWAR (would probably be better if not for that 10 billion-walk performance against Cleveland). The staff’s 2.72 ERA is also third in baseball, and they’re top-four in FIP and xFIP as well. You have to love what you’re seeing out of them, particularly given who’s not around

It’s hard not to highlight Albert Abreu here. He’s tied with Mike King for the lead in IP among relievers, and has yet to allow a run this year. Not surprisingly, the walk number gives you pause (3 in 7 innings), but he’s just been really effective! He’s held opponents to the same BABIP as Gerrit Cole has, induced a 47.4% GB%, better than every starter except Brito, plus Ron, Hamilton, and Wandy, and he’s averaging 97 MPH on his four seamer.

Command is always going to be the concern for Abreu, and his current xFIP over 4.00 reflects that, but he’s also in the 95th percentile or better in MLB for xBA allowed, xSLG allowed, xwOBA allowed, xwOBACON allowed, and xERA. He’s striking out more batters than he ever has and walking fewer while inducing pretty weak contact.  His pitch usage is converging (he used to throw sinkers basically half the time, now it’s under 40%), and he’s leaning a bit more on his four seamer and changeup than he has in the past. It’s working for him now, and as long as he can throw strikes reliably enough, the Yankees may have unlocked the true weapon version of Albert Abreu.

5. DJ LeMahieu is striking out 31% of the time and slugging .500 proving once and for all that even the “contact hitters” the idiot boomers on twitter idolize know definitively that I am right. 

The Yankees are playing well. The cavalry is coming. The kids are figuring it out. We ride. Go Yankees.

Will Harris
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