Leading Off: Minnesota Twins
I saw this in person and it was sick - Game 1 of the 2019 ALDS (Alex Trautwig / Getty Images)
The Teams
This mid-week series is a matchup of two of the teams that have underachieved most this year. The 24-35 Twins are tied for last in the AL Central with the lowly Tigers (don’t tell the Twins about the Tigers sweeping the Yankees), and the Yankees have fallen to fourth in the AL East and 6.5 games out of first place. Bad weeks are really bad.
You know the story on the Yankees, and you can listen to us talk about it at length on the latest episode of our podcast if you want.
We went into pretty deep detail on the fact that the Yankees refuse to hit the ball in the air, and how that ruins their offense. If only someone had written an analytical deep dive into such a thing almost two months ago…
What’s ailing the Twins? Well.. Umm.. they have the opposite problem as the Yankees. The Yankees can’t hold up their elite pitching with even an average offense. The Twins cannot support their strong offense with even serviceable pitching.
They’re 10th in the league in runs per game (I would kill for the Yankees to do that) at 4.58. They’re giving up 5.17 runs per game. That’s the second-highest figure in the AL. It’s also just what the Yankees’ sputtering offense should want to see right now.
On top of this, everyone on the Twins is hurt, it’s really unfortunate. Byron Buxton looked like the best player in the world earlier in the season. He’s on the IL. Max Kepler, who was once very publicly and controversially compared to Aaron Judge (and is a good player, just not Judge good) is on the IL. Elite catcher and reason Gary does the one knee thing Mitch Garver is on the IL. Ridiculously low K% guy Luis Arraez is on the IL. Former Yankees Jake Cave and Rob Refsnyder are on the IL. In Refsnyder’s case, it’s because of… whatever this is.
Nice homer by Future Yankee Ryan Mountcastle (I’m making it a thing).
On top of all this, Kenta Maeda and strikeout machine Caleb Thielbar are hurt. Injuries have decimated the Twins, they only have two starting pitchers who have an ERA+ over 100, and try as they may, they have not scored enough runs to keep themselves in games.
The Elephant in the Room
The Yankees have a record of dominating the Twins that now spans nearly two decades. The Yankees have feasted on the Twins, especially in the playoffs. The Twins took game 1 of the 2003 ALDS from the Yankees, and proceeded to lose the next 3 games, and the series.
History repeated itself in 2004. The Twins won game 1 of the ALDS behind Johan Santana, and lost the next 3 games to lose the series. They were then swept by the Yankees in the ALDS in 2009 and 2010, lost the Wild Card Game to the Yankees in 2017, and got swept in the ALDS again in 2019. That makes the Twins 0-13 against the Yankees in the playoffs since game 1 of the 2004 ALDS ended, and 2-16 against the Yankees in the playoffs since 2003.
Over that same span, the Yankees are 81-35 against the Twins in the regular season. That’s unbelievable.
The Pitching Matchups
Game 1: Jordan Montgomery vs Michael Pineda
JoMo takes the mound again for the Yankees looking to play stopper after a great start against the Rays his last time out. He’s been alternating good and bad starts, and worryingly is not due for a good one, but his tendency to produce soft contact (and growing ability to miss bats) should play well against Minnesota’s lineup. Gumby has pitched to a 3.55 ERA since April 29, and his FIP is just a shade over 3.50 this year. Look for him to continue improving. He is becoming a strong and trusted piece of this rotation just when they need him with Cole navigating a rocky stretch and Kluber going down. Something to watch - Monty is elite at getting batters to chase, but the Twins are more disciplined than the average team. Let’s see if he can get them to swing at junk, or if he offers some free passes.
The Twinkies will counter with Big Mike Pineda, just as MLB vows that it is going to crack down on the use of foreign substances. Hmm…
Pineda is above average in strikeout rate, chase rate, and walk rate, but that’s about it. He does not throw hard. He is not a high spin guy. He allows a ton of hard contact. His 3.40 ERA appears to be pretty fraudulent, as his xERA is almost a full run higher. Like Garrett Richards, he’s a guy you should expect the Yankees to hit hard. You should be mad if they don’t.
Game 2: Randy Dobnak vs Gerrit Cole
Gerrit Cole is the best pitcher on this team and one of the best pitchers on the planet. The Yankees are 2-4 in his last 6 starts (since the beginning of May) which is weird, but he’s pitched to a 3.08 ERA in that time, and I expect to see the same dominant guy we came to know and love soon enough. There’s nobody I could be less worried about.
THE UBER DRIVER IS BACK. You may remember when Yankee Stadium derisively chanted “UBER! UBER!” at Randy Dobnak in Game 2 of the 2019 ALDS, in reference to his offseason side hustle. Dobnak would likely want to forget that day for many reasons, including his 2 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 2 BB performance that effectively ended the series. In Dobnak’s defense, he only allowed one run-scoring hit, a single by Edwin Encarnación in the first… but he put three runners on in the second before being removed for Tyler Duffey, who allowed this.
Dobnak has a 6.19 ERA this year (his xERA is hardly any better) and a 1.44 WHIP. The Yankees should destroy him, as they did on that October afternoon in 2019. He doesn’t walk anyone. That’s something positive you can say about him. Just wanted to get that in there, I guess.
Game 3: TBD vs JA Happ
Tough to say who the Yankees will use in this one. It’s Mike King’s spot in the rotation now, I guess, but he has not been overly dependable. Maybe they’ll monitor the bullpen usage in the first two games and see if they’d prefer King or Deivi. Maybe they’ll just push all the bullpen resources behind King given that there’s an off day on Friday. Who knows?
Here is JA Happ’s page on Baseball Savant.
Between this, and the fact that he did everything he could to kill the Yankees while he was in the Bronx, this is a big revenge game for the Bombers. I would love nothing more than to see Stanton and Judge both hit absolute bombs off of the newly-bearded lefty. Nothing about the season he is having or the peripherals he has suggests that he should be able to control this lineup. Don’t let him.
Go get a sweep.
Oh, remember this game? This was fun.
Let’s go Yankees.
