The Official 2021-2022 Yankees Offseason Entrance Survey
The 2022 Yankees first baseman?
Another winter is upon us, and with it comes another baseball offseason. The Yankees enter this winter with a chance to put the bad taste of 2021 behind them and upgrade their team to secure their status as American League favorites going into 2022. Will they accomplish this goal? The next four months will help us find out. To tackle some of the big questions of the offseason, let’s turn to the good old entrance survey for a look at what lies ahead for the Yankees this winter.
1. Who should be the Yankees’ top free agent target?
Alec: Corey Seager needs to be in pinstripes come next spring. The Yankees need to prioritize shortstop this winter, both with the internal opening there (and no, Anthony Volpe doesn’t count) and the vast amount of talent that is on the open market. Seager is a lefty bat who has put up a .290/.360/.516 line over the last three years and is only 27, meaning any contract will capture his prime years. I think Carlos Correa and Seager are both talented players who would fit well with the Yankees, but Seager’s left handedness and non affiliation with any cheating scandals puts him over the top for me.
Will: Freddie Freeman. He’s only a month younger than Anthony Rizzo and will certainly demand a longer contract, but the 2020 NL MVP is darn close to being a .300/.400/.500 career hitter who reliably delivers 65+ XBH and 100 runs. The 5-time All-Star has a history of health, and hasn’t had an OPS+ below 132 in the last 10 seasons. He also provides some lineup balance with his lefty bat and could serviceably replace Rizzo’s defense as a recent Gold Glove winner.
2. Where is the area of greatest need for the Yankees this winter?
Alec: The Yankees need to figure out their offense, specifically in the infield. The Yankees’ shortcomings in 2021 were all based around their lack of offense, which made other parts of the team suffer as a result (the bullpen blowups and defensive shortcomings only looked so bad because the games they came in were all close). Any hitter whose name is not Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton should not be guaranteed for a starting spot next year. The infielders dragged down the lineup in almost every game, whether it was by being injured (Voit, Urshela) or with poor performance (DJ, Gleyber). Fortunately, there are many talented hitters on both the free agent and trade market who play infield positions and the Yankees seem like they are going to spend money. If they do, we could be looking at a very different infield alignment in 2022.
Will: Offense. As a staff, Yankee pitchers posted an ERA this past season that was .8 runs better than the ERA they posted in 2019. They were elite at run suppression, but they won 11 fewer games in 2021 than in 2019. Why? They didn’t produce runs. As you know, I think the Yankees were pretty unlucky when it comes to batted ball outcomes and performance relative to projections (looking at you, DJLM and Gleyber), but I need to go into next season feeling better about the offense than I do right now. Whether that comes in the form of upgrades to first base, shortstop, or somewhere else, I don’t care.
3. Which big name free agent do you want the Yankees to stay away from?
Alec: Robbie Ray. I’d generally be fine with any hitter on the market, but pitching is another story. If the Yankees upgrade their rotation or bullpen, they should do so on their terms and at the right price. The number of Robbie Ray to the Yankees rumors I’ve seen troubles me. Ray had a 4.53 ERA and a 5.1 BB/9 rate from 2018-2020, then suddenly stopped walking people and became good. Ray has always been a good strikeout pitcher, but I don’t trust that he’s figured it all out after one good year and I especially don’t like paying a premium on that for a position that the Yankees don’t need to upgrade.
Will: Carlos Correa. I don’t care how good he is. I’m not sold on giving 10 years to a shortstop right now anyway given my belief in Gleyber and two of the farm’s top prospects being shortstops. On top of that, I can’t have that cheater wearing pinstripes. As I’ve said a number of times on Twitter now, every team that has won the World Series did so without Carlos Correa, except the team at the center of the biggest cheating scandal in the last century of MLB.
4. If the Yankees pursue any trades, who should they get?
Alec: I think Matt Olson would be an excellent trade target, especially given the Oakland financial situation. If the Yankees are willing to take on money, they can definitely keep their top prospects - we’re seeing a lot of examples of teams giving away players to save money. Aside from that, I think exploring a trade for a center fielder could be an option if they don’t feel confident with Hicks as the starter. I’d be intrigued by a Bryon Buxton trade. Ketel Marte also is a possibility, as the Diamondbacks are most likely looking to sell and Marte has been excellent in his last two full seasons.
Will: If we’re being aspirational, I’d love Matt Olson, but the price tag scares me a bit. If they’re looking for arms and have bats to spare, I find Pablo Lopez terribly interesting. If we’re being realistic, I really don’t mind Josh Bell. I don’t think it would take much (at least with respect to near-MLB-ready talent) to get him, and it would simplify the first base situation without requiring that they pay a free agent.
5. Who is one current Yankee who should be traded?
Alec: I think the Yankees should try to extract some value from their bullpen arms. Chad Green is in his walk year and while he’s been a great asset out of the bullpen, he also has had his share of long ball issues and is replaceable. If someone wants to take Aroldis Chapman, I would send him packing in a second. I think the Yankees bullpen should be anchored by Jon Loisaga and Clay Holmes - anyone else is expendable. It’s the area of the team where we’ve seen Brian Cashman consistently find hidden gems and I’d be fine with trusting him to do it again. On the offensive side, I wouldn’t hate the idea of trading Gallo - it wouldn’t be on my offseason to do list, but as I said earlier, the Yankees need to explore options for replacing any hitter besides Judge/Stanton and Gallo has perhaps the most value of the remaining hitters.
Will: I’d love to say DJ LeMahieu, but nobody is going to take on that contract. The tough part about this is I’m not going to advocate for trading anyone who has produced recently, meaning I’m probably going to say they should trade someone who would constitute a “sell low” which is a shame. Luke Voit is the obvious candidate. He hasn’t stayed healthy of late, doesn’t provide any defensive value at first (more important with the potential for a defense with some guys playing out of position), and is cheap enough that he might actually pull in a nice haul in spite of his recent inability to stay on the field. I guess my dark horse is Estevan Florial. I believe in him a lot and would give him a chance to be the fourth/fifth outfielder if I were in charge, but if other teams value him I’d be fine with the Yankees exploring what they could get by including him in a package.
6. Who is one current Yankee who should get a greater opportunity in 2022?
Alec: I think the Yankees should commit to a roster spot for Miguel Andujar. His poor season numbers were dragged down by an abysmal start. In his final 36 games before injury, he had a .758 OPS and provided value filling in for Clint Frazier and Aaron Hicks in the outfield. Bring Andujar to camp as a corner infielder/outfielder backup and just let him hit - we know he can and it’s time for the Yankees to stop moving him between the majors and minors. Having a bench player like Andujar at his best would be a boon for the 2022 Yankees.
Will: I’ve always loved Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier, so I won’t harp on that. How about Deivi Garcia? I know he struggled in AAA last year, but he was great in 2020, got very unlucky in his start in Detroit in 2021, and then never saw the field again. We know the team believes in him, and he’s still very young (22 until mid-May). They’re going to need to do some rotation gymnastics as Jameson Taillon recovers in the beginning of next season and guys get stretched out. Why not give him a chance early on?
7. If the Yankees don’t do…..this winter, then they will have failed.
Alec: Sign Carlos Correa or Corey Seager. The best two players on the market play the position of greatest need for the Yankees - it’s too good of a fit not to happen. Much as with Gerrit Cole in 2019, this is a bidding war the Yankees cannot afford to lose.
Will: Keep Gary Sanchez. The catching market is awful and Gary is so much better offensively than Higashioka. If they make a move at catcher, the offense will get worse. I’m not willing to accept that.
8. What is your ideal Yankees offseason? What is your realistic Yankees offseason?
Alec: The ideal offseason involves the Yankees getting two of Carlos Correa, Corey Seager and Matt Olson. It would also involve signing a reliever for the back end of the bullpen (Raisel Iglesias, probably). Lastly, the Yankees would trade for a center fielder, move Hicks to a fourth outfield spot, and trade Luke Voit to free up space in the infield. DJ LeMahieu would become an infield supersub who will probably play a lot anyway. Finally, I’d like to bring back an old friend. In the words of many people on Twitter - Masahiro Tanaka, you are a Yankee!
Is this all realistic? I think some of it is. In the realistic offseason, I think the Yankees still get Correa or Seager. I think Anthony Rizzo will also be re-signed and Voit will be traded. I could see Gio Urshela being traded as well to clear more room in the infield. Lastly, I think any pitching moves are going to be lower end depth moves and that the Yankees do not get an outfielder. Hopefully they do a bit more than this, but we’ve seen them sign a big free agent and call it a day too many times before.
Will: The ideal offseason for me is pretty simple.
Sign Freddie Freeman, allowing the team include Luke Voit in a trade for a solid bullpen arm or rotation depth
Sign Max Scherzer, and fund some of his contract with the money that becomes available in the next move.
Move on from Aroldis Chapman and Zack Britton. They’re ridiculously expensive, sometimes injured, and recently less successful versions of Jonathan Loaisiga and Clay Holmes/Joely Rodriguez. Britton’s injury complicates this, but it would be possible to include Chapman in a trade with a nice prospect to incentivize the salary relief.
Convince Trevor Story he’s only worth 4 or 5 years and sign him to a contract of that length
Trade DJ LeMahieu for literally anything and cement the Freeman, Gleyber, Story, Gio infield
Give Michael Conforto a look because I’m sure he could still play some CF if he had to and it would make the Mets fans angry.
Go get 2017 Gary Sanchez from a time machine
Do the same thing with Dellin Betances
Release Kyle Higashioka
The realistic offseason is a little more complicated.
Sign Corey Seager to a very long and expensive contract
Trade one of Luke Voit or Gio Urshela to make room in the infield (I could see both being moved)
Sign a first baseman, most likely Anthony Rizzo
Add an underwhelming CF option. The FA options are really bad here, so expect someone like Kevin Pillar or Odubel Herrera.
Add some rotation depth. I like Carlos Martinez but think they would want a lefty. I don’t know that they’d shell out what Kershaw is going to demand (or even Carlos Rodon). I assume the ceiling here is something like Danny Duffy or Steven Matz.
Add some bullpen arms, likely via trade, maybe not even MLB guys. The Yankees love to stock up going into ST, and someone always sticks.
