Leading Off: Boston Red Sox
Don’t forget that the Yankees are undefeated against the Red Sox in Europe (Roland Harrison / Icon Sportswire)
Well it had to happen eventually.
The Teams
This weekend the Red Sox will come to the Bronx for three games with the Yankees, and frankly, I think it’s tough to say what either team is right now.
The Yankees are 31-26 and sit in third in the division. They are 26-11 (114-win full season pace) since their dismal 5-10 start, but have are 0-2-1 in their last three series.
The Red Sox are second in the division at 33-23 (2.5 games ahead of the Yankees) but are a mere 11-10 since they hit their high water mark of a 3.5 game division lead on May 9th. Don’t let the record fool you, they are coming back to earth.
The Red Sox rank just behind the Rays at 5th in the league in runs per game, and are 7th in OPS+. Thankfully, they allow about half a run per game more than the Yankees (who score a lot, lot less).
Yankee Killers
Have you ever heard of a certain Julio Daniel Martinez? Well he’s pretty good. The three-time all star is currently leading the league in hits, and has an OPS of .962. Since 2018 when he joined the Red Sox, his OPS against the Yankees is .946, and only Randal Grichuk has more home runs against the Yankees in that time.
Of course we all know that JD Martinez is an elite hitter, and not the guy the Yankees should allow to beat them. What’s concerning is that Xander Bogaerts, who is fifth in HR against the Yankees since 2018 (thankfully only 31st in OPS) has a 149 OPS+ this year, the highest mark of his career.
Rafael Devers is having the best season of his career as well (154 OPS+), but thankfully has just a .682 OPS against the Yankees in his career, comparable to what the unusually-light-hitting Gleyber Torres has posted this year.
Pitching Matchups
Hey wouldn’t it be cool if the Yankees looked like they were trying to win the ALL games in this series? I sure think so. Sadly, it doesn’t look like we will see that.
Game 1: Mike King vs Nathan Eovaldi
Remember when Mike King threw 12.1 scoreless innings to start the season? That was really cool. He’s been significantly worse since then, pitching to a 6.52 ERA in 9.2 IP and allowing opponents to hit .302/.412/.535, which is better than Aaron Judge has been this year. In Mike King’s last 4 games, he has turned opposing hitters into BETTER VERSIONS OF AARON JUDGE. I had to repeat that because I couldn’t believe it when I saw it at first either. That’s a terrifyingly bad way to be pitching.
It gets worse too. Mike King is good at limiting hard contact, but all of his other peripheral stats are horrible. In other words, his Baseball Savant page is very blue. That’s an issue, and it suggests that his strong start to the season is much more likely to be an aberration than his recent struggles are.
The only thing I can ever think of when I hear Nathan Eovaldi’s name is this YES Network commercial outtake in which Brian McCann calls him “Brovaldi.”
Brovaldi is having a strong year. His ERA is a touch over 4.00, but he is currently posting career best marks in FIP, WHIP, and HR/9 (leading league). He still throws just about as hard as you’ll remember, which his fastball averaging 97 MPH, and sports elite control (86th percentile in walk rate). Luckily for the Yankees, he’s a low spin-rate, low strikeout, low swing and miss guy, but he also seems like the kind of power-pitching righty who could give them some trouble, especially as he limits hard contact very effectively.
Game 2: Jameson Taillon vs Eduardo Rodriguez
The Yankees will start Jameson Taillon on Saturday, and he’s having a tough time of things this year. Despite back-to-back good starts, his ERA is still over 5.00 and the Yankees are 4-6 when he’s pitched. April was cruel to Jamo, who posted a 6.23 ERA in that month as opposed to his mark below 4.50 in May, but he’s struggled with consistency and the ability to go deep into games.
Many of his peripherals are better than league average (fastball velocity & spin, curveball spin, xwOBA, xBA, K%, BB%, etc.), but he’s not excelled at limiting hard contact, and is in the bottom 15% of the league in barrel rate allowed. That’s no recipe for success. With that said, his xERA is 1.3 runs lower than his realized ERA, so a nice period of regression may be on the horizon for Jamo.
There’s a time when Eduardo Rodriguez was not happy.
Frankly, he has not had much to be happy about this year either. He’s pitching to the worst ERA and WHIP of his career, despite approaching his career best in FIP (weird thing to do IMO). Much like Taillon, he has some good peripherals (his ERA is higher than Jamo’s but his xERA is lower), but has not been able to realize their benefits. There may be regression coming for E-Rod, I just hope it doesn’t happen agains the Yankees. I won’t say that the Yankees should destroy him because he’s a low velocity, low spin, low strikeout lefty, because EVERY TIME I SAY THAT THIS OFFENSE PROVES ME WRONG.
Game 3: Domingo Germán vs Garrett Richards
We get Domingo on Domingo on Sunday Night Baseball to finish off the series. Man is it going to be great to get that big game feeling back and terrible to have to write a recap once it’s over…
You know the story on Germán. The Yankees are 7-1 when he starts since coming back from the alternate site (the only loss was 2-0 to the Blue Jays) and he sports a 2.44 ERA in that span. In those last 8 starts, Domingo Germán has effectively turned opposing lineups into Jack Flaherty at the plate (as measured by OPS allowed). JACK FLAHERTY IS A PITCHER. That’s how good he has been. Let’s hope he keeps it up.
Garrett Richards is the guy I continue to cite as the reason why the Red Sox cannot keep up the facade that they are an elite team. His 3.75 ERA is phenomenal, but his WHIP is 1.483 (second worst of his career min. 10 games), he is walking people at a career high rate (min. 10 games), and he’s allowing the third most hits/9 of his career. His success doesn’t feel sustainable despite his FIP hovering around 4.00. With the exception of barrel rate, fastball spin, and curveball spin his peripherals are terrible (allowing the highest xBA, second highest xwOBA of his career), and he’s outperforming his xERA by nearly a full run. You should take personal offense if the Yankees don’t destroy him.
Parting Shots
Get excited. The Yankees won a couple of really nice games against Tampa, and have another option to make a strong statement in these three games against Boston. The rivalry has been renewed, and should have more juice than it has in the past couple of years as the Red Sox stopped being terrible (and likely started cheating again, given that Cora is back). Let’s beat them so badly that we can make fun of them for getting rid of Mookie Betts for “a young, controllable player like Alex Verdugo” while we gloat about sweeping their fraudulent team.
Let’s go Yankees.
