Leading Off: Tampa Bay Rays
The 2020 HR king rejoins the Yankees in Tampa this week (Adam Hunger / AP)
The History
The obvious storyline here is that the Yankees have not played well against the Rays in a long time. They are 1-5 against Tampa this year and were 2-8 against them last year. Their last series win against the Rays came when they took 3 of 4 at Yankee Stadium on July 15-18 of 2019. They have not won a series in Tampa since May 10-12 of 2019. More than two years ago by the time this series wraps up. If you believe in due, they’re due.
The Series
The Yankees and Rays come into this series tied for second place in the AL East. Both teams are 3 games behind the Red Sox *vomits* and look to shrink that deficit during this three-game set.
Since their 5-10 start, the Yankees have gotten hot. They are 13-6 (.684) in their last 19 games (after their five-game losing streak) and have not lost a series since… the last time they faced the Rays. It’s been a good few weeks to be a fan of the Yankees.
The Rays got to 8-8 on the season when they swept the Yankees, and are 11-9 (.550) since then. Both teams have been hot relative to their records this season since they met last, the Yankees have just been hotter. The Rays have certainly faced tougher competition in that stretch, with series against Kansas City (they’re under .500 now but were good at the time), Toronto (they’re not bad), Oakland (first place currently), Houston (first place later), the Angels (it’s not all gonna be tough) and Oakland again (still first place). The Yankees have had some tough matchups including games against the first place Braves, the 18-14 Indians, and those same Astros, but had the benefit of playing against the Tigers and Orioles as well.
The Yankees are 17-11 in games against teams who aren’t the Rays, and the Rays are 14-16 against teams who aren’t the Yankees. Let’s hope they play like those teams.
The Bats
You don’t need me to tell you the story of the Yankees this year. They are only scoring 4.06 runs/game (22nd in MLB), and are below league average in batting average, and slugging percentage. Their OBP is quite good though, putting their OPS+ at 102, good for 8th in MLB. Some of the underlying stats are good too. They are once again leading baseball in hard-hit percentage (thank you Giancarlo Stanton), and are now second in average exit velocity (thank you Giancarlo Stanton, again). They also lead the league in walk rate, and are middle of the pack in strikeout rate. This team is disciplined, and hits the ball hard. That’s a recipe for success.
The elephant in the room is that LUKE VOIT IS RETURNING THIS SERIES. This year, the Yankees have produced a triple slash of .150/.250/.244 from the first base position. Thank you Jay Bruce and Mike Ford. That .494 OPS is the lowest that any team in baseball has gotten from its first basemen, and is fully 470 points behind the league leaders. Last year, Luke Voit produced a .948 OPS. That would be third in baseball in first base production (by team), and it would clear 4th place by nearly 100 points. I think it might be good to have him back. This is all not to mention that he provides great lineup protection for Judge (or Gleyber, or whomever he hits behind), and that he LED THE LEAGUE IN HOME RUNS LAST YEAR. here’s a reel of him hitting homers against… no one in particular.
You’re gonna tell me you want to give that guy ANYTHING AT ALL to hit? Come on.
The Rays score a bit more than the Yankees, but not much. They are putting up 4.25 runs per game, have the same team batting average as the Yankees (.222) and are below league average (and the Yankees) in OBP (.304) and slugging (.368). Tampa’s triple slash this year is very similar to that of Guillermo Heredia (who was a Ray) in 2019, who slashed .225/.306/.363 for an OPS+ of 81 and was worth 0 offensive bWAR. It is important to acknowledge that league-wide offense is down, and Tampa’s OPS+ as a team is 97, but Guillermo Heredia is Guillermo Heredia man.
A note on Randy Arozarena: he is hitting the ball as hard as anyone in baseball (and destroying fastballs to the tune of a .569 SLG), but he his hitting ground balls 61.3% of the time and it’s very bad for his production. His BABIP is .403, presumably because he hits the ball so hard, but don’t let his surface stats fool you. Unless he starts hitting the ball in the air more (and he likely will) he’s in some strouble.
The Arms
Game 1: Jordan Montgomery vs Luis Patiño
Jordan Montgomery has been good this year. It doesn’t show up in his numbers yet thanks to a couple starts against Tampa in which he gave up 4 ER, and a short start against the Indians. Even with that, he has gone 5+ innings and given up 3 ER or fewer in half his starts, including each of his last 2, and the Yankees are 4-2 in games he starts. I’ll take that.
We also have reason to believe he’s been getting a bit unlucky. Batters are hitting .455 with a .818 SLG against his cutter, which he throws almost 21% of the time, but the xBA against it is .270 (not great) and the xSLG is .438 (also not great). Even though his cutter is getting hit hard, there’s no reason for him to continue to get THAT unlucky with it. He’s also getting a lot of swings and misses on his curveball and changeup. I’m looking for some more strong pitching out of him.
Baseball has not seen a ton of Luis Patiño. He has only appeared in 14 games (2 starts), and most of what we’ve seen from him at the Major League level has been quite good. In 2020 with San Diego, he did a good job of limiting hard contact, and was still above average in K% despite not creating a ton of swings at pitches out of the zone, or a ton of swings and misses generally. Walks have been a problem for him historically, as he ranked in the bottom 2% of the league in walks in 2020, but he appears to have nearly eliminated walks entirely in 2021. Now, we’re talking about a total sample of 25 career innings here, and a pitcher who’s 21 years old, so it’s hard to say anything definitive about him. He hasn’t thrown more than 56 pitches in an appearance in his career, and worked as the opener for Josh Fleming in his only other start this year. We’ll see how he does against the Yankees (and who comes in to relieve him). It looks like they’re starting him to give Yarbrough and Fleming an extra day each of rest, but it’s tough to predict who the bulk guy will be after him.
Game 2: Gerrit Cole vs Ryan Yarbrough
You know Gerrit Cole. The AL Pitcher of the Month for April has a 1.61 ERA in 7 starts, and has yet to allow more than 2 ER in a start. In his last 6 starts, the Yankees are 4-2, he’s gone 6+ innings each time, and he’s pitched to a 1.37 ERA, and struck out 58 batters in 39.1 innings (13.3 K/9). He’s phenomenal and I am so glad he is on the Yankees. His K/BB this year is 22 because Gerrit Cole only does crazy person things.
You know Ryan Yarbrough pretty well too. He was good in his earlier game against the Yankees (5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER), and has 3 clunkers and 4 gems in his 7 appearances (4 starts) this year. The lefty currently sports a 4.58 ERA but is elite at limiting hard contact, and almost as good at avoiding the free pass. He’s not a high velocity guy, as none of his pitches average faster than 86.4 MPH, but man can he be effective when he’s on. He’s always been a tough matchup for the Yankees, but I hope they can find a way to put up some runs and get Cole the win in this one.
Game 3: Jameson Taillon vs Josh Fleming
Jameson Taillon is having a good year. I’ll say it. Sure his ERA is over 5.00, but it’s 3.98 in his last 4 starts, and he has 3 starts of 3 ER or fewer (2 starts of 1 ER) in that span. He also notched his season high in strikeouts (8) against the Tigers on May 1, and has not allowed more than 5 hits since April 13. On top of all this, Jamo appears to be getting pretty unlucky. His xERA is just under 3.00, and he’s in the top 25% of the league in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, K%, chase rate, and BB%. He’s also a super high spin rate guy, and we know that plays. It has looked like Jamo has been finding his groove recently, and we should be pretty psyched to see that.
I don’t know who Josh Fleming is either. He’s pitched in 12 games for the Rays in 2020 and 2021, and has a 2.79 career ERA, seems darn good. He’s never pitched against the Yankees, and no current Yankee (not even like, Rougie Odor) has faced him.
I’m not gonna talk about him like I’ve seen much of him. He appears to be from the Ryan Yarbrough school of low velocity (though his sinker does average 91 MPH) and low exit velocity. He does not strike many guys out and his prone to walking people. With that said, he gets a lot of swings on pitches out of the zone, and is above average in all the expected stats (except xBA). He seems like a very Rays starter to have and I’m sure the yankees will have plenty of difficulty with him. His sinker and changeup both have 5.4 more inches of vertical movement than the MLB average, so we could see some ugly swings and misses.
Thoughts
The Yankees are finally coming into into a series with the Rays when they’re hot and clicking on all cylinders. It’ll be nice to have Voit and Gio back in the lineup, and the Rays are coming off a West Coast trip, and just dropped a series to Oakland. Take this series, capitalize on not seeing Glasnow, and put some space between yourselves and the Rays in the standings.
Alec will have a really fun article for you guys tomorrow.
Let’s go Yankees.
