Leading Off: Baltimore Orioles
Gleyber has ruled Camden Yards in his career. Let’s see if he keeps that going this week (Nick Wass / AP)
Basement Dwellers
Just as we all expected, this series is a matchup of the two worst teams (tied for last) in the AL East. If that doesn’t tell you how early it still is in the season, I don’t know what can.
The Orioles have had a rough go of it lately, and if the Yankees have anything to say about it, nothing should change for Baltimore. Though they throttled the A’s on Sunday (really just throttled Deolis Guerra), they come into the series as losers of 3 of their last 4 games, as well as 4 of their last 6. The Yankees are just the opposite, gathering momentum as the Orioles lose it. The Bombers come in as winners of 3 of their last 4 and 4 of their last 6 after a split with the Braves and an impressive series win over Cleveland.
Both teams find themselves 1.5 games back of second place in the AL East (Tampa, 11-11) and 4 games back of first (Boston, 14-9). The Yankees will look to feast in Baltimore this week and shoot up the AL East standings.
What’s the Opposite of Tropicana Field? Camden Yards
For as long as I can remember, the Yankees demonstrating offensive prowess at Camden Yards has been a major topic of conversation. The common refrain is that when the Yankees need to get hot, they look for a trip to Camden Yards.
Well, I hate to break it to you, but this tired narrative is EXACTLY CORRECT. Since 2017, Yankee batters have hit 48 home runs in Toronto, 38 in Boston, and 36 at the Trop. Over that same span, they have hit a whopping 83 (!!!!) home runs in Baltimore, by far the most home runs they’ve hit in any opponent’s ballpark. The only parks where Yankee batters have 200+ PA since 2017 where they have hit for a higher OPS than they have in Baltimore (.916) are Comerica Park in Detroit (.922) and Globe Life Park in Arlington (.932). The triple slash the Yankees have produced in Baltimore since 2017, .290/.345/.577, is quite similar to Trevor Story’s 2018 season (.291/.348/.567) in which he was an All-Star, ranked in the top-10 in MVP voting, and won the Silver Slugger award for NL shortstops (he was also ninth in all of baseball in offensive bWAR that year). The ENTIRE YANKEES BASEBALL TEAM has produced AT THAT LEVEL in Baltimore FOR 4 SEASONS NOW.
The Arms
Game 1: Deivi Garcia v Matt Harvey
Deivi Garcia was 13 when Matt Harvey burst onto the scene for the Mets in the summer of 2012. Deivi Garcia was still 13 when Matt Harvey kicked off his 2013 campaign by going 5-0 with a 1.55 ERA in his first 9 starts. Deivi Garcia had turned 14 by the time Matt Harvey started the 2013 All Star Game for the NL at Citi Field.
I’m glad to see Mystic Matt back on the field as a starting pitcher. It’s very easy to forget how good he was before his Tommy John surgery (and even in his 2015 return to the Mets), and he’s clearly struggled for a while now. In 83 starts since 2016 (tough volume to achieve for a guy who most people thought had fallen off the planet) for the Mets, Reds, Angels, Royals, and Orioles, Harvey has pitched to a 5.78 ERA (73 ERA+). He’s had a penchant for walking too many guys and not striking enough guys out, though he may be getting those numbers back under control.
The O’s are 2-2 in his starts this year. He has not thrown more than 89 pitches (understandable for a guy with a long injury history), and has given up 6+ hits in 3 of his 4 starts. I’m glad to have him back in my baseball consciousness, but I hope the Yankees score approximately 10,000 runs off him.
Deivi Garcia rules. The 21-year old starter from the Dominican Republic came up last year amid major pitching woes for the Yankees (inconsistent performances exacerbated by the losses of James Paxton and Luis Severino) with all the prospect hype in the world, and delivered. His numbers don’t blow you away, but some individual games do, especially for one of the youngest players in the league who only made 6 starts above double A in his short Minor League career. Deivi held the Mets scoreless through 6 innings in his Major League debut, and threw two seven inning gems against the Blue Jays in the couple of weeks following that. Many fans will remember him being used rather oddly as an opener in the ALDS against the Rays, but what you should remember is that we have an incredibly talented young pitcher on our hands. Can’t wait to see what he does in his first start of the season on Monday night.
Game 2: Corey Kluber v Bruce Zimmermann
I took up a lot of time talking about that first matchup because the rest of these are significantly less interesting, both to me and in general.
Zimmermann is a 26-year old lefty who made his MLB debut last September, and earned a spot in Baltimore’s rotation this year. In 4 starts this year he is pitching to a 4.57 ERA and has given up 4+ hits in each appearance. The Statcast metrics like his spin rate (top 35-40% of the league in fastball and curve spin) and he is in the 89th percentile for chase rate despite being just about average for whiff rate. He allows plenty of hard contact and doesn’t strike many people out. If the Yankees don’t expand the zone, they can get to him.
I just want Corey Kluber to figure things out. He keeps almost showing us something, and then falling apart very painfully. A 5.40 ERA with 14 K and 11 BB over 15 IP in 4 starts just isn’t going to cut it. It’s not a step toward sustainable bullpen use, and it’s not the guy the Yankees thought they were getting. If he can stop giving away so many free passes, he should be able to control his pitch count a bit more, and start going deeper into games.
Domingo German v TBD
After a pretty gutsy performance in which he allowed 2 ER over 6 IP his last time out against Cleveland, German will look to carry that momentum on to Baltimore with him. Pay attention to the quality of contact against German in this one. It looked like there was some BABIP luck on his side in the Cleveland game, although the numbers looked good at the end. I’m looking for a season high in strikeouts from German in this one. He routinely struck out 7+ in his starts during his strong 2019 campaign, but has not struck out more than 6 in a game yet this year. Let’s see that this time out.
A TBD in Baltimore’s rotation should really stick out to the Yankees. They don’t really have 5 guys they can depend on to begin with (everyone except John Means has an ERA over 4.57), so handing the ball to someone who is not normally expected to start anyway is… risky.
Jordan Montgomery v Jorge Lopez
It hasn’t been a great year for Montgomery, who comes into this one with a 4.57 ERA, but he has delivered a couple of performances that should give us confidence moving forward. Not only did he throw 6 shutout innings against these Orioles in his first start of the year, but he had two starts against the Rays that were almost quite good before faltering a bit in his last start against Cleveland. Even so, the Yankees are 3-1 when Gumby takes the mound, and I’m looking for another gem from him against Baltimore.
Lopez is a 28-year old right hander from Puerto Rico who spent most of his career with the Brewers, before going with Brett Phillips to Kansas City in the Mike Moustakas deal, and then being selected off waivers by Baltimore last August. Prior to the completion of Sunday’s games, Jorge Lopez was leading the league in both losses and earned runs (and not in the good way, in the bad way). The Yankees touched him up for 4 R in 4.2 IP on April 5, and it’s been a rough road since then, highlights by a 5 IP, 2 H, 2 R performance for his only win of the year against the Rangers. There’s really no excuse for the Yankees not to destroy this guy.
Obligatory Yankee Killers Section
For reasons I will never understand, DJ Stewart, who has slashed .224/.336/.406 for a .741 OPS since 2019, kills the Yankees. Over his career, Stewart is slashing .310/.431/.845 against the Yankees for a 1.275 OPS. That is… incomprehensible. For some context on how insane it is to slug .845, consider this. Babe Ruth only had two seasons in which he slugged .845 or better. In those seasons, he slugged .846 and .847. He did not slug better than .772 during any other season of his career. Barry Bonds exceeded an .845 SLG% once, and those three instances are the only times someone has ever slugged better than .845 in a season. DJ Stewart’s career performance against the Yankees, extrapolated out over a full season, would be the 4th best season of all time by slugging, and the 9th best by OPS. This makes no sense.
It’s the Orioles. Don’t think too much. Go out there and mash. Give the starters some run support. Hit bombs. Let’s go Yankees.
