Leading Off: Washington Nationals
The Yankees carry some good memories of games against Washington from 2020 into this series (Alex Brandon / AP)
BREAKING
10:30AM: Reports are surfacing (from Miguel Andújar’s winter league team and other sources) that Papá is returning to the big leagues. This does mean Gio Urshela is going on the IL, but it also means that Miggy Doubles, who had a 130 OPS+ in his 2018 rookie campaign, IS BACK. It’s so cool when your backups are All Star good. Are we excited? You be the judge.
ANDÚJAR TIME BABY WOOOO
— Yankees Files (@YankeesFiles) May 7, 2021
Here’s Miguel Andújar doing some great stuff.
Where Do We Stand?
The Yankees are coming off a loss as they open up against the Nats on Friday night, but they are just about the hottest team in baseball. They’re winners of 5 of their last 6, as well as 11 of their last 16, and sit just 2.5 games behind Boston in the AL East.
First in war, first in peace, fourth place in the National League East sums things up right now for the Nationals. They come in at 12-15, which puts them 2.5 games out of first in the NL East. The NL East is so weird, man. Things have been tough for Washington so far.
What’s Right?
You know what’s right for the Yankees, we don’t need to dive into it. Giancarlo Stanton is the hottest hitter on the planet, the starting pitchers have found a good groove, and guys who appeared to be in impossibly bad slumps (Hicks, Frazier, Gardner) are starting to break out. It’s been a good few weeks to be a fan of the Bombers.
The best thing going for the Nats is shortstop Trea Turner. He found his power stroke last year with 12 home runs in 59 games, and has continued to mash this year. Over the past two seasons (85 games) he is slashing .328/.385/.579 for a .964 OPS (159 OPS+). For comparison, going into Thursday’s game, Giancarlo Stanton is hitting .312/.364/.606 (.970 OPS). Trea Turner has been doing that for 85 games, and is also leading the league in stolen bases. He doesn’t ALWAYS get the attention he deserves because of a certain Juan Soto, but Turner is a beast. We can’t forget about Soto, though. He’s only played in 16 games this year but the young lefty is sitting on an .839 OPS and is likely to get into a good slugging groove soon. Josh Harrison has also been a pleasant surprise for the Nationals. The 33-year old utility man had a .630 OPS (71 OPS+) from 2018-2020, but has been on fire to start the year, hitting .324 with an .874 OPS (143 OPS+).
What’s Wrong?
For the Yankees? You want me to write that something’s wrong with the Yankees after they beat the Astros in a series, Clint Frazier homered, and Aaron Hicks had a couple multi-hit games? What is this? A Nationals blog? Get outta here.
I will grant that at the time of writing this, we don’t know the extent of the injury that got Gio Urshela pulled from Thursday’s game. I maintain that there is no problem Miguel Andújar can’t solve (I really believe this) so I am officially not worried.
Aside from Turner, Soto, and Harrison, no one on the Nats’ offense is hitting. After Soto at .839, the next-highest OPS on the team belongs to our old friend Starlin Castro at .626 (73 OPS+). That’s… uhh… not what you want. Thanks to the widespread offensive ineptitude, the Nationals only score more runs per game than the Mets and Tigers (3.5). As a result even being slightly better than average at run prevention (4.31 runs allowed per game) has left them under .500 on the year.
Other bad things include that the Nats signed Josh Bell so that he’d, ya know, hit… and he has a lower OPS than Patrick Corbin, who is famously a pitcher. Kyle Schwarber is not doing much better, posting a .573 OPS, which is lower than that of Joe Ross who is, say it with me, ALSO A PITCHER. I assume they saw those offseason moves panning out differently than they have thus far.
Potentially the worst thing for the Nationals (and my fantasy team) is that Stephen Strasburg is injured. The former #1 pick and Very Good Pitcher has been out since April 18th after making two pretty mediocre starts. It seems he’s making good progress and will be back soon (good news for the Nats), but the Yankees will dodge him in this series.
Matchups
Game 1: Patrick Corbin v Jameson Taillon
Things have been tough for Patrick Corbin this year (last year was tough too, when he went 0-8 in his last 8 starts), but I am told things are beginning to turn around. He has mixed 2 good starts in with 3 bad ones (one REAL clunker of 2 IP, 10 H, 6 ER is really inflating his ERA), but got his first win since last August on May 1, when he twirled 7 innings of 2-run ball. Velocity on his fastball and sinker have climbed back into the 91.5 MPH range after settling around 90 MPH last year, so he may be finding something. However, there’s a loooooooooot of blue on his Baseball Savant page.
This should jump out at the Yankee hitters.
Jameson Taillon, on the other hand, has been doing a lot of things well recently. He’s pitched to a 3.86 ERA in his last 3 starts, and recorded 19 strikeouts over 14 innings in those games. The one thing he hasn’t provided yet this year is a start in which he pitches deep into a game, but maybe as he continues to put the pieces together in his return to health, we will see that this series.
Game 2: Max Scherzer v Corey Kluber
How about five Cy Young awards going at each other on Saturday, huh? Kluber is coming off a couple of gems, allowing just 1 run over his last two starts (14.2 IP). I sure wouldn’t mind his discovery of the old Klubot’s powers continuing for a while longer. His ERA on the season is down to 3.03, and he looks like he’s stretched out and ready to give the Yankees another horse at the top of their rotation.
Scherzer is having a typical Scherzer year. He’s pitching to a 2.54 ERA, and aside from a no-show against Toronto a couple of starts ago, he’s going exactly what you’d expect him to do. He’s already given the Nats 4 starts in which he allowed 1 run or fewer, and pitched a complete game his last time out prior to attending the birth of his child. The weird guy with the dichromatic eyes continues to dominate, and I am concerned about the Yankees’ ability to produce against him.
Game 3: Joe Ross v Domingo German
I have to say I really like what we’ve seen from Domingo German since his return from the alternate site. The Yankees are 3-0 when he starts, and he’s pitched to a 2.50 ERA over 18 innings. He may be the only Yankee on the right side of BABIP luck (the contact he allows isn’t always the softest), but he’s been hot lately, and the Yankees hope he can stay hot in this one.
I recently heard it alleged that Joe Ross “might be the hero the Nats desperately need.” Ross has returned to the Nats this year and slotted into their rotation after opting out of the 2020 season, and it’s hard to complain about what he’s provided. He has started 5 times, and spun 2 scoreless outings, and 2 more in which he allowed 2 runs or fewer. He got smacked around for 8 hits and 10 runs against the Cardinals in the middle of April, but his worst start outside of that is 5.1 IP, 2 ER. Baseball Savant seems to think he’s getting a bit lucky (bad expected stats), but it’s tough to argue with results.
Notes
Juan Soto is hitting .556/.600/1.556 in 10 career PA against the Yankees with 3 homers, so it would be nice of him to stop that. Those PA all came in 2018.
Victor Robles is also a potential Yankee Killer candidate, currently hitting .375 with a 1.375 OPS against the Yankees in 3 games
Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Gio Urshela, and Giancarlo Stanton all have an OPS of 1.000 or better against Max Scherzer (Stanton has the only 3 homers off Scherzer by any current Yankee), but the Yankee with the highest career OPS against Scherzer is Tyler Wade (he is 1-1 with a single)
Giancarlo Stanton Homer Reel (Because Why Not)
We’ll finish things off with these two homers that I hope you didn’t forget from the beginning of the 2020 season. Wonder what this guy’s been up to lately…
I asked a Nats fan, who told me Washington would steal a game but he “hate[s] this matchup” for the visitors. Well, I hope he’s right.
Come back for another Thoughts piece from Alec on Saturday, and the series recap on Sunday. Let’s go Yankees.
