Leading Off: Philadelphia Phillies
Watch it fly, Gio. (Pinstriped Prospects)
It’s the 2009 World Series Rematch we’ve all been waiting for (sort of), as the Yankees make their first visit to a National League park this year to face the Phightin Phils. Joe Girardi’s squad is in second place in the National League East behind the Mets and have had an uneven start to the year. The Yankees will go up against their former skipper coming off a series win against the Twins, although they will miss their ex-shortstop Didi Gregorious, who is on the IL with an elbow issue. Let’s dive into this quick two game series preview!
2021 Phillies So Far
The Phillies have had a lot of positives, a lot of negatives, and a record that is pretty close to .500. That’s about par for the course for this organization, which has really struggled to make their recent rebuild pay off and somehow haven’t made the playoffs in ten years. That really snuck up on us, huh? They have an 18% chance to make the playoffs at this point, which is lower than they’d like, mostly because they’re already almost six games out of the wild card race. It’s NL East or bust for them. Joe Girardi is in his second season as Phillies manager and has been in the news recently for his comments about Bryce Harper’s injury, which he downplayed to make it seem like it wasn’t that bad before Harper went on the IL. Girardi still runs the same playbook with his player management.
Philadelphia’s offense was projected to be an above average unit but has instead been solidly below average. The unit ranks fifth in the NL in batting average, but seventh in home runs and tenth in runs scored. The best hitters are catcher JT Realmuto and Harper, who are both having standout years. Harper’s recent injury has diminished his stats, but he is still a force to be reckoned with at the plate. Aside from those two, Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen are all having solid seasons. The run production hasn’t been there, but this Phillies lineup is plenty deep.
The Phillies pitching staff has not done the team any favors either, ranking ninth in the NL in ERA. Zack Wheeler, who the Yankees will miss this weekend, has had a career year with a 2.51 ERA and is coming off of an eight inning, 12 strikeout masterpiece against the Braves. He is backed up by Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, and Vince Velazquez, none of whom have stood out this year. This starting staff is strong at the top with Nola and Wheeler, but lacks the depth that would allow it to cover up the weakness of the offense.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Phillies bullpen is much improved over last year’s historic disaster, but still leaves much to be desired. Hector Neris is closing games for them with a 2.10 ERA and blew a save in Thursday’s game to rob Wheeler of a win. He is supported by Sam Conrood, Spencer Brogdon, and Jose Alvarado, who haven’t been as bad as the Brandon Workman/Heath Hembree/Adam Morgan/David Phelps unit from last year. The Phils’ pen is rested coming off Friday’s off day (why did we have an off day on a Friday anyway?)
Pitching Matchups:
Jameson Taillon vs. Vince Velazquez
Velazquez has been one of the most polarizing figures of the Phillies rebuild - always good enough to have potential, but can never quite put it together. He came up with the Astros and was traded to Philly in the 2015 Ken Giles deal. In six years since then, he has a 4.73 ERA, walking 3.7 men per nine innings and striking out 10.1 men per nine innings. The high strikeout, high walk combo hasn’t been enough to get it done at the Major League level consistently. This year, Velazquez has a 4.33 ERA, which would be his lowest since 2016, albeit with underlying stats that show he is due for some regression. He has faced the Yankees three times in his career and pitched reasonably well, with a 3.14 ERA in those outings. This is video from his most recent start against them, last summer.
He will be opposed by Jameson Taillon, who pitched great against the Red Sox in his last outing and then hit the dreaded “third time through the order” wall. Taillon is still looking for that elusive combo of length and quality pitching and will have a NL matchup he is familiar with, although he has pitched much worse away from Yankee Stadium this season, with an ERA over 8.00.
Domingo German vs. Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola has been the Phillies ace for a few years now, after they selected him seventh in the 2014 Draft. From 2017-2020, Nola pitched to a 3.23 ERA and was perhaps one of the most underrated players in baseball, only making one All Star Team despite his tremendous stat lines. Along with Wheeler, Nola gives the Phillies two high quality pitchers at the top of their rotation. This year, he has taken a step back, carrying a 4.06 ERA into this weekend, which can mostly be attributed to giving up more hits and hard contact this year than in the past with a slightly lower strikeout rate. Nola’s last six starts have yielded a 1-5 record and a 5.68 ERA, so he is not on a roll right now. Nola has faced the Yankees once in his career, last season, where he pitched six innings of one run ball in a no decision. This was the one run, and it was a good one.
For the Yankees, Domingo German will get the start. German continued his run of hot pitching against the Red Sox last Sunday, although he was let down by his bullpen. He has a career best 3.12 ERA this year, which is seventh in the American League, and will be making his first career start against Philadelphia.
Yankees vs. Phillies History
The Yankees and Phillies have some recent history against each other, specifically the 2009 World Series, where New York beat Philadelphia for their 27th title. Ah, what a glorious time that was. Hideki Matsui has some thoughts about that series.
The Yankees have played the Phillies a few times since then, most recently in 2020 when they split four games. There are a few ex-Yankees on the Phillies too, most notably Girardi, Gregorious, and Ronald Torreyes. The Toe-Night Show was too pure for this world.
Thoughts Before the Series
The Yankees handily won their last series in Minnesota, coming one half inning away from a sweep. Although it wasn’t the complete dominance that we might have been expecting, it was pretty close. Allow me to submit my favorite Joe Biden/Yankees crossover tweet.
The Yankees have had the Twins number for decades now, leading to a complete ownership unlike many that we’ve seen in history. They have gone 112-47 against the Twins since 2000 and have beaten them five times in the playoffs. It’s hard to overstate the single team dominance from the Yankees to the Twins. The Twins have lost 18 straight games in the playoffs and most of those have been to New York. In fact, the Yankees have only won five playoff series against teams that aren’t the Twins since 2001. That’s crazy! If you ever doubt the Yankees against the Twins, look at the stats and try to say there’s no such thing as one team owning another team. I dare you.
Welcome back to the Yankee lineup, Giancarlo Stanton. The slugger had returned from his stint on the IL last week against Detroit, but had struggled mightily before the Twins series. Over the last three games, Giancarlo hit .400 with 3 home runs and 8 RBI. He’s an incredibly streaky hitter, which means he’s prone to major slumps, but also able to put on power displays like this.
A healthy and hitting Stanton adds another dimension to the Yankees lineup. When he and Judge are hitting homers, the Yankees never lose a game (10-0 in these scenarios). As we’ve said many times, the Bronx Bombers are built to hit bombs and when they don’t do that or don’t have guys who can do that, it’s a lot harder for them to win games. With the impending return of Luke Voit and the emergence of Miguel Andujar, the Yankees lineup looks deeper and more threatening, but having Stanton to complement Judge takes it to another level. It’s not a stretch to say Stanton might be the difference between the Yankees having a decent lineup and having an unstoppable one.
This quick two game interleague set is another opportunity for the Yankees to pick up some wins before they head to Buffalo to take on the Blue Jays. The key to this series, much as the key to the entire season, is hitting. When the Yankees offense hits, it’s a lot easier for the pitching to look good and for the team to win. One complication will be the lack of a DH, which will prevent the red hot Stanton from playing in the two games. Expect to see him in a big pinch hitting spot, should the opportunity arise. Lastly, this will be a big start on Saturday for Jameson Taillon, who has not pitched well at all on the road. If he can provide a quality outing with some length, it will take pressure off the bullpen, which has faltered in some recent games.
The series kicks off this afternoon at 4:00 - enjoy the games and go Yankees!
