Leading Off: Buffalo Blue Jays
The Yankees return to Buffalo to play the Blue Jays - things that we never thought we’d say in 2019 (Buffalo News).
It was a series against the Blue Jays in which the Yankees started to fall apart and so it follows that a series against the Blue Jays could be what saves this team. Optimism is in short supply these days, but the Yankees NEED to win this series both for their own confidence and to avoid falling further in the standings. Let’s take a look at what they’re going to face against the Canadian ex-pats.
2021 Buffalo Jays So Far
The 2021 Blue Jays have been an incredibly streaky team, much like that team in the Bronx we all know and love - it makes sense why they’re so close in the standings. The Blue Jays are in third place with a 33-31 record, slightly ahead of the Yankees. They absolutely smacked down the Red Sox offensively this weekend, including hitting eight home runs off them on Sunday, a record for a visiting team. However, they only split the series because of some late inning comebacks by Boston. The Blue Jays will be hosting the Yankees in Buffalo this week, similar to last year, because the country of Canada will not let sports teams (or people in general) cross the border back and forth to America yet. The Blue Jays might legitimately go two years without playing in Toronto, which is wild.
The Blue Jays offense is actually less impressive from a league ranking standard than you’d think, but as we covered in May, they have plenty of Yankee killers and some of the best hitters in the league. Vlad Guerrero Jr. is the best hitter in baseball right now and the runaway MVP favorite, and he is backed by Bo Bichette and Marcus Semien, who all seem bound for the All Star Game next month. Yankee Killer Randall Grichuk and Cavan “son of Craig” Biggio are also dangerous hitters. This will be a really tough lineup for Yankee pitching in a minor league ballpark, so watch out.
The Blue Jays pitching is a bit less solid, as the rotation depth behind Robbie Ray and Hyun Jin Ryu has vanished. Steven Matz hit the COVID IL this week and Ross Stripling/Anthony Kay have ERAs close to 5.00 at the back of the rotation. Young Alek Manoah has performed well in three starts since his career debut at Yankee Stadium. This Blue Jays team will need a top of the rotation starter to compete, but their team ERA ranks 6th thanks to a strong bullpen performance this year. In short, if the Yankee lineup can carry over its strong performance from the last few games, this series could be a slugfest.
Bullpen Breakdown
As we mentioned, the Blue Jays bullpen has been one of the surprises this year and has allowed the team to compete in games where the starter has fallen short. Jordan Romano, Trent Thornton, and Joel Payamps have all pitched well above average this year. Rafael Dolis has had a rockier season and gave up last night’s walk off hit to Rafael Devers. Dolis and Payamps are coming off lengthy outings from that game, but the rest of the pen got some rest this weekend thanks to the Blue Jays offensive outpouring.
The Yankees pen, meanwhile, is well rested thanks to three off days in the last week. Aroldis Chapman had his struggles in his last two games, but hopefully has gotten his runs out of his system and can go back to dominating hitters. With Zack Britton in the fold, this unit should continue to dominate for New York.
Pitching Matchups:
Game 1: Jordan Montgomery vs. Hyun Jin Ryu
Ryu is far and away the Blue Jays ace, after finishing in the top two of Cy Young voting over the last two years. He has avoided the injury issues that plagued the beginning part of his career since 2019 and is having a strong season this year as well. Between him, Rich Hill and Kenta Maeda, it’s absurd to look at the strong pitching seasons from ex-Dodgers across the league and think that Los Angeles doesn’t even need the pitching depth. Ryu has faced the Yankees twice this season, winning both games and giving up two earned runs in twelve combined innings. His overall 3.34 ERA has been raised by a tough four start stretch in which he has a 5.01 ERA. Also, shoutout to Ryu for kicking off Hot Gary Summer. He knew, folks.
Facing Ryu will be Jordan Montgomery, who pitched decently enough his last time out against Minnesota. Monty is starting to find some consistency, as he hasn’t had a truly blow-up start in about a month. He faced Toronto last month and gave up three runs in 4.2 innings, thanks to a monster Bo Bichette homer. Less of that please, Jordan.
Game 2: Gerrit Cole vs. Ross Stripling
Ross Stripling is another Dodgers castoff who hasn’t been pitching at the level of his peers, but has provided adequate rotation depth for the Blue Jays. He has a 4.91 ERA this season, but a 2.38 ERA over his last four starts. Stripling is also one of the smarter pitchers in baseball, as he is a licensed stockbroker, investment adviser, and analytics nerd. This season, Stripling has faced the Yankees once and given up three runs in 3.2 innings back in April. Stripling, much like his rotation mate Ryu, knew that it was Hot Gary Summer early on and decided to get ahead of the curve. Behold.
Gerrit Cole will take the mound against Stripling. Cole pitched well his last time out in Minnesota after many questions surrounding his use of sticky stuff in his career. He was extra motivated to pitch well and his pitch speeds reflected that, as his average fastball velocity in his last start was the highest of his career. Cole is always at his best in big games, so expect him to come out strong in this one.
Game 3: Michael King vs. TBD
Because of Steven Matz’s inconclusive COVID test, the Blue Jays will most likely have to use their bullpen for an extended outing in this one. They will be opposed by Michael King, who may or may not be better than the Blue Jays bullpen. King threw an immaculate inning this season once - let’s show that and not talk about how Deivi Garcia should be starting.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays History
The Yankees and the Blue Jays have played many times throughout the years because of their division rivalry, but their most contentious period was 2015-2016. This was when a rising Toronto team knocked off an aging Yankees team to win the AL East and make the postseason in back to back years. There were many memorable games from this time period and these two teams were never afraid to get chippy with each other. Last month I highlighted the Andrew Miller/Troy Tulowitzki game ending battle, so today I’ll link to another memorable moment from that game - Carlos Beltran’s go-ahead home run.
This season, the Yankees are 3-6 against Toronto. Change that please.
Thoughts Before the Series
Should Aaron Boone be fired? This was a hot topic of discussion amongst Yankees fans during the off day and while this normally is something that all fans say when their favorite team is underperforming, there are legitimate reasons for the Yankees to consider moving on from Boone. Boone got off to a hot start as manager, winning over 100 games in each of his first two seasons, but has really underperformed in the last two years. I think good teams make managers look better than they are and bad teams make them look worse than they are. However, a common complaint about Boone has been his lack of urgency, dating back to his managerial mistakes in the 2018 ALDS against Boston. We all love the Savages in the Box rant, but Boone has presided over a sinking ship since 2020 and has been content to let it sink, for the most part. He is a player’s manager through and through, but Joe Torre and Joe Girardi, who both went out of their ways to stick up for guys when they were doing poorly, also were not afraid to rip into their team when they were playing below their talent level. That’s what I can’t get past right now - it seems like Boone is in a haze while this team struggles. Last weekend’s game against Boone, where his coaches were ejected while he stayed in the dugout, is just one notable example from recent weeks of Boone not being in the right headspace. One of my favorite principles is that a team takes on the characteristics of its leaders, and nowhere is this more true than in the Bronx right now. The Yankees are playing lifelessly as their manager manages with no urgency. So do I think he should be fired? I am not a proponent of midseason managerial changes (they cause much more chaos than they bring clarity, especially for an established core like the Yankees who have mostly worked with only Boone in their careers) but if this continues through 2021, I think the Yankees absolutely cannot keep him around. There’s a lot riding on this season for a team that has only had three managers since 1996.
Hot Gary Summer! We’ve said it a few times before (and by that, we mean a lot) but the return of Gary Sanchez has been a glorious thing to behold. In his last 27 games, Gary is batting .250/.324/.500 with 6 home runs and 15 RBI, numbers that are typical Gary Sanchez numbers from his best years and rank among the best catcher batting statistics in the league. His season OPS is up to .741 and he has worked his way back into the starting lineup most days. It cannot be said how much we are rooting for Gary Sanchez. He has taken more crap than most athletes and does not deserve any of it. Does he strike out a lot? Sure. Was he bad last year? Yes. For the majority of his career, he has been quite good compared to regular batters, much less catchers and is an integral part of this Yankee lineup once again. Do not underestimate the power of Hot Gary Summer.
The keys to this series are simple - shut down the Blue Jay big bats and score some damn runs. There are some guys on the Blue Jays that can really make Yankee pitchers pay, but there are enough holes in the lineup to avoid giving them anything to hit. Monty and Cole are more than capable of pitching to a skilled lineup such as this. On the offensive side, the Yankees need to carry over their recent progress and take advantage of the small stadium in Buffalo. Above all else, they need to win. Must win games are rare in June, but given their recent struggles, this is as close to must win as it gets.
Game time is 7:05 tonight - for the love of Mo, please get a win (or two or three). Go Yankees!
