Leading Off: Baltimore Orioles
Bash Bros 2.0 Take Baltimore (Newsday Images).
Baltimore, sweet Baltimore! The Yankees return to Camden Yards for the second time in 2021, having ended their most recent road trip there as well only two weeks ago. The team has been red hot since then and will look to continue their strong play in this weekend set against the O’s, who have been...not as hot. It’s a beautiful weekend in the Northeast, the Yankees are surging, and Ken Singleton is in the broadcast booth. What could possibly go wrong? (Besides a mini COVID outbreak on the team, but hey, what’s a few positive tests among friends?)
The 2021 Orioles So Far
We’ve seen Baltimore a decent amount over the last few weeks, and it’s surprising that the Orioles have stuck around for as long as they have. Baltimore is 16-21 and while they’re in last place and six games back of the Red Sox, they haven’t played as terribly as many people expected. However, the Orioles have been slumping hard since the Yankees last encountered them. They won series against Oakland and Seattle, but lost three of four against Boston and were swept by the Mets. The Orioles offense is one of the worst in the league, ranking 14th in the AL in runs scored and 12th in home runs. Cedric Mullins has been a revelation (and a Yankee killer) and Trey Mancini has had an inspiring return from colon cancer, but no one else in the offense poses much of a threat. On the pitching side, the star of the show is John Means, as we’ll discuss later. Matt Harvey was having a nice season before he was hit around in his return to Queens. The rest of the rotation is unimpressive to downright bad. Because of the surprising solid bullpen, the team ERA actually ranks eighth, which isn’t too bad for a rebuilding team. Right now, this team is outperforming expectations thanks to star turns for a few of their hitters and pitchers, but the depth and sustainability isn’t quite there yet. If you squint REALLY HARD, you can see the future for the Orioles, but it’s still very far away/
Bullpen Breakdown
As mentioned above, the Orioles bullpen has not been half bad in 2021. Veteran pickup Cesar Valdez has had a fine season at closer and he is supported by Tanner Scott, Adam Plutko, and Paul Fry. These are all little known names, but that’s the life of a rebuilding team. The Orioles had an off day yesterday, so their bullpen should be fresh for the series opener.
The Yankees bullpen isn’t in too bad of shape - Taillon didn’t provide length yesterday, but Mike King and Justin Wilson ate up some innings. Aroldis Chapman and Jonathan Loisaga have been heavily worked recently and it would be nice to get them some rest by scoring lots of run and picking up some blowout wins this weekend. Hint: The Yankees offense should follow this advice.
Pitching Matchups
Friday: Corey Kluber vs. Dean Kremer
The Yankees will see Dean Kremer on the mound in Camden Yards again, where they had great success against him last month. The Yankees tagged Kremer for six runs in 4 and ⅓ innings, with Mike Ford and Gio Urshela hitting long balls off of him. Enjoy a long ball, won’t you?
Since then, Kremer has had more success, pitching 11 innings and giving up four runs across two starts versus Seattle and Boston. Kremer features high velocity but has not always been able to command it well. He was one of the main pieces in the Manny Machado trade that the Orioles acquired from the Dodgers and was the first Israeli drafted by an MLB team, which is quite an accomplishment. Kremer is a left handed pitcher and the Yankees should be all over him, as they were last time. It will be a good run scoring opportunity for the Bombers after scoring five total runs in Tampa.
Facing Kremer will be Corey Kluber, who is on a superb run of pitching. In his last three starts, he is 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA. He has been the master of soft command, allowing an average exit velocity of 80.5 MPH, seven miles an hour below the league average. Kluber kicked off this run with a solid start in Camden Yards two weeks ago and he’ll look to produce more of the same on Friday.
Saturday: Domingo German vs. Jorge Lopez
Much like Kremer, the Yankees have faced Lopez relatively recently. He pitched four innings in Baltimore’s 4-3 extra innings win over New York in their previous series finale, giving up two runs. He hasn’t provided length, not pitching past the fifth, but also not allowing many runs (giving up no more than one in each start). Lopez is only 28 but a bit of a journeyman - he’s pitched for the Brewers, Royals and now the Orioles, not finding too much success at any location. His most notable start was taking a perfect game into the ninth inning as a member of the Royals.
For the Yankees, Domingo German will look to continue a superb run of pitching (notice a trend?). The Yankees have won each of his last four starts and German has posted a 2.59 ERA in those starts. His best outing of the group came in Baltimore, where he threw seven scoreless innings against the Birds. German has limited the long ball (four in his first two starts, three since) which has brought more success in his recent outings. He’ll look to handle the Orioles in the same way he did before.
Sunday: Jordan Montgomery vs. John Means
Aside from Gerrit Cole, who won’t pitch this series, the best pitcher in the American League has been the Orioles ace John Means. Means pitched the game of his life two starts ago, throwing a no hitter that was only kept from being a perfect game by a dropped third strike. He followed that up by throwing seven scoreless innings against Baltimore, so Means is on some kind of run right now. Means is first in the American League with a 1.21 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP. Suffice to say this will be a tough assignment for the Yankees. You could say that it “means” they will be in for a rough night. Last time Means faced the Yankees this year, it was at Yankee Stadium and he pitched adequately, giving up one run in 4 and 2/3 innings. Means has improved since then, although again, he is a lefty and the Yankees love those!
Opposing Means will be Jordan Montgomery, who pitched very nicely in Tampa at the beginning of the week. He went six innings and struck out nine while only giving up one run. In his last outing against the Orioles, Monty went five innings and gave up two runs in a no decision in a game the Yankees ultimately lost. They should not do that this time.
Yankees vs. Orioles History
The Yankees and Orioles have already played each other seven times in 2021, with the Yankees holding a 4-3 advantage thus far. The Yankees won the first series at the Stadium, while Baltimore managed to split four games at Camden merely two weeks ago. The Yankees have had the Orioles’ number in recent years, winning 19 straight versus the team from 2019-2020. The Orioles are better now than they were then, but have still required extra innings to grab two of their wins against New York this year.
Thoughts Before the Series
Hot damn, has the Yankees pitching been good or what? It seems like each game, the current starter tops what the previous night’s starter did (Note: this was written before Taillon’s mediocre start in Tampa last night, but I still feel the overall sentiment is worth sharing). In their last month of baseball, the Yankees rotation has rarely given up more than three runs per game. Flash back to three weeks ago, when things looked bleak behind Cole, and it was hard to see this positive outcome. However, once the offense improved and took the pressure off of the rotation, the talent of this group started to assert itself. The main game-changer has been Corey Kluber, who went from “barely being able to pitch four good innings” to “looks ready for Game 2 of the ALDS”. Yes, it’s still May and all the usual caveats apply. Yes, offense in baseball is down across the board. However, it is stunning to look at the success of this staff, both rotation and bullpen. They are both deep and talented and if they keep pitching anywhere close to this potential, then the Yankees are primed for a deep October run. Even with the bullpen hiccups last Thursday and Friday (18 runs allowed over two games), the numbers are very impressive and give the Yankees a HUGE advantage over their division rivals.
As alluded to in the previous response, the Yankees offense has been greatly improved, but still not where it has the potential to be. They won the series in Tampa but only scored five runs in total, which usually is not a pattern for success. They haven’t scored more than four runs in over a week. One of the key culprits has Clint Frazier, who was ejected Wednesday night for arguing balls and strikes.
It’s hard to blame Frazier for being frustrated. as his offense has tanked this season. He is batting .146/.283/.292 with only three home runs and six RBI. Before this year, Frazier had a career .806 OPS and posted a .905 OPS just last year, so this regression is a bit surprising. When analyzing his statistics, it is obvious Frazier is hitting the ball less hard (hard hit rate down by seven percent and line drive rate down by 13 percent) and thus his power stats have nosedived. Clint has been much too passive at the plate - his walk rate is actually higher despite the decline in the other stats. The eye test backs this up too. Clint has been letting hittable pitches go by all year and never seems in command at the plate. What can this be attributed to? It’s the first year he hasn’t had to fight for a starting job, so maybe a different mentality has affected the way he’s approached the game. Regardless, the Yankees’ left field production has nosedived this year, so Frazier needs to turn it around lest the Yankees look for alternatives come July.
For the first time in a long time, the Yankees enter a series with relatively low expectations. Their record isn’t underwater anymore and they beat the Rays in a series in Tampa for the first time in two years, so spirits are high around Yankeeland. The main goal of the weekend is to keep the good times rolling. The next week of baseball features seven games against mediocre baseball teams (Baltimore and Texas) before the Yankees host the first place White Sox in the Bronx, so they should take this opportunity to fatten up their record before the games get tough again. The team is going well right now and we all know that this won’t always be the case, so bank the wins now while you have everything clicking on all cylinders!
Game time tonight is 7:05 - here’s hoping for a fun weekend in Charm City! Go Yankees! I will now leave you with an eighteen minute highlight reel of all the home runs the Yankees hit against the Orioles in 2019 for no other reason than the fact that it rules.
