Leading Off: Cleveland Indians

Gio Urshela revenge games rule (Getty Images)

The Yankees continue their stretch of 13 games in 13 days against teams that blessedly are not Tampa Bay with 4 games against the Indians, beginning on Thursday evening. The two teams last met in the Wild Card Series in the 2020 playoffs, when we were introduced to potential Yankee Killer Josh Naylor, and saw the Yankees rough up Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber. Let’s dive in.

The Teams

After taking one of two from the Braves in a quick series (but losing 6 of their last 7), the dormant Yankee bats head to Cleveland looking to heat up. The Indians, now 8-8, limp into the series as losers of 5 of their last 8 after a loss and a snow-out (normal April in the midwest stuff) against the White Sox over the last couple of days.

The Indians are built around run suppression, even after trading away Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco, two very good starters. They come into the series allowing only 3.75 runs per game, good for seventh in all of baseball and .31 runs per game better than the Yankees. To this point, though, they’ve been plagued by similar offensive issues as the Yankees, mustering only 3.88 runs per game, slightly better than the Yankees who are just shy of 3.5 runs per game on offense <vomits>.

The difference between the teams, of course, is that everything is going according to the plan for the Indians. They’re going to pitch well enough to keep themselves in, and win, close, low-scoring games. The Yankees, on the other hand, need to break out of the doldrums on offense (though they’ve shown no signs of doing so), and this Cleveland staff will make that very tough.

Yankee Killers

Josh Naylor only has 6 regular season plate appearances against the Yankees, all coming from two games in May 2019 when he was a member of the San Diego Padres. That’s not the story here. The story is that Josh Naylor went 5-7 with a homer and 3 doubles (.714/.714/1.571, 2.286 OPS) against the Yankees last year in the postseason. The Cleveland lineup is not potent (19th in OPS), so preventing any Yankee killing from the non-Jose Ramirez members of the team will be key.

Ramirez is a different story. Of teams against whom he has at least 20 PA, the Yankees are the team Ramirez hits hardest. Over his career, he is slashing .370/.413/.645 for a 1.058 OPS against the Bombers in the regular season. Over a 37 game sample from 2014 to 2019, JD Martinez put up basically the same stat line (.376/.408/.645) against the Yankees, and I don’t remember that being fun either. Ramirez is absolutely a certified Yankee Killer.

The Arms

The Indians are projected to start Aaron Civale, Logan Allen, Shane Bieber, and Triston McKenzie against the Yankees in this series, and that’s plenty intimidating, especially for a team that has struggled to score runs.

Aaron Civale, of East Windsor, Connecticut and Loomis Chaffee High School will start for Cleveland on Sunday #JustConnecticutThings. Civale has started off his career nicely, pitching to a 3.49 ERA over 25 starts since 2019. He’s a high spin rate, low walk rate, weak contact guy. He will want the Yankees to chase pitches out of the zone and make weak contact. Don’t expect him to get himself in trouble either, he has only walked 5 batters in over 20 IP this year. In his one start against the Yankees in August of 2019, he gave up 3 R (2 ER) on 8 H in 6 IP. Civale is the real deal.

Logan Allen will look to pitch similarly to Civale against the Yankees, and don’t let his 4.50 ERA deceive you. He’s been strong this year. The third-year pitcher is currently posting career best numbers in FIP, WHIP, BB/9, K/9, H/9 and HR/9. He’s inexperienced, with just 15 appearances and 7 starts to his name in his career, but we have reason to believe he will be quite good. It’s not about the swing and miss with Allen, ranking only in the 18th percentile in whiff rate, rather it is about avoiding hard contact, and he does that well. Allen is in the 76th percentile of average exit velocity allowed and in the 81st percentile of barrels allowed. The contact doesn’t tend to be soft when the guys in the Yankee lineup hit the ball, though, so let’s hope Allen’s approach comes back to bite him.

I don’t care about last year’s playoff game, I can already tell you the Yankees will struggle with Shane Bieber. And that’s fine! Plenty of teams do! But if the Yankees end up winning three of four in this series, you can bet this is the game they lost. Bieber doesn’t allow hard contact, and strikes everyone out. That’s why he won the Cy Young. He recently became the first pitcher in history to strike out 10+ batters in each of his first 4 starts of a season, and it’s hard to see the Yankees breaking that streak.

McKenzie is another very inexperienced member of Cleveland’s staff, coming into the series having appeared in just 11 regular season games (8 starts). You may remember his appearance in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series last year when he allowed a home run to Gary Sanchez, but proceeded to mow down DJ, Judge, Hicks, Stanton, and Urshela afterward. McKenzie is just about the anti-Logan Allen. He is basically the worst in the league (1st percentile) in average exit velocity allowed, but ranks in the 91st percentile in whiff rate and the 84th in K rate. If you can put the bat on the ball against him, you probably hit it quite hard. The challenge is making contact.

We’re expecting Domingo German’s return to the Major League roster on Thursday, followed by Jordan Montgomery, Gerrit Cole (against Bieber!) and Jameson Taillon. While it is a bit jarring to see the Yankees push back a Cole start, pushing him back to face the reigning AL Cy Young award winner makes some sense. Look for a resurgent Domingo German, a steady Jordan Montgomery, a dominant Gerrit Cole, and a Jameson Taillon who keeps rolling after a great start against Atlanta.

Gratuitous Reel of the Yankees Mashing Dingers in Cleveland

Please enjoy this video of the Yankees hitting a bunch of bombs in Cleveland. We love it and we think you will too. Never hurts to relive some sweet playoff wins either, does it? We personally apologize to Corey Kluber for including Gary’s home run off of him, but eagerly await his thanks for us not including both of Didi’s.

I don’t like Ohio. Never have. Never will. Go get 4 wins. Let’s go Yankees.