How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Gerrit Cole
All hail the king.
The Yankees are red hot right now, having won their last 13 games and 25 of their last 30 games. They have saved their season and not a moment too soon, going from out of the playoff picture entirely to being safely ensconced in a Wild Card spot and hot on the heels of the Rays. The bats of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Luke Voit have sparked this resurgence, but the real MVPs of the team have been the pitchers. The emergence of Nestor Cortes as a reliable starter and Jonathan Losiaga as a bullpen ace have bolstered the established pitchers in contributing to the Yankees’ American League best 3.61 ERA. However, there’s only one choice for the best pitcher on the best pitching staff in the American League and that is Gerrit F. Cole. In the second year of his nine year, $324 million contract, Cole has been everything the Yankees could have wanted and more. Despite some bumps in the road and some adjustments surrounding the “sticky stuff” crackdown, Gerrit Cole has been the best pitcher in the American League this year and is in line to win his first Cy Young.
What’s that, you say? Lance Lynn has a better ERA? And what of Shohei Ohtani? Well, Gerrit Cole has been just as good, if not better than them or any other pitcher. Cole leads the league in the following categories - Wins, Complete Games, FIP, Strikeouts, WHIP, K/9 and K/BB. In the other stats that he’s not in first in , he still comes pretty damn close. Cole is third in ERA, second in “quality starts”, fifth in innings pitched - even with the brief COVID IL stint, and second in WAR. Cole has been on another planet this season and has been so fun for fans to watch - most of the time. In honor of the Cy Young season we’re in the midst of watching, let’s rank all 24 of Gerrit Cole’s starts, from the least enjoyable to watch to the ones that had us on the edge of our seats. As someone who has somehow been to four of these games, I can attest that much like the Yankees campaign in general, it certainly has been quite a season for Cole.
Tier 1: More Man than Machine
24. June 27th @ Boston (L 2-9) - 5 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
The undeniable worst moment of the year for Cole and perhaps the Yankees. After dropping the first two games in Boston in a statement series, Cole went out and gave up four runs in the first inning, putting the series to bed before either myself or my dad had a chance to walk into Fenway Park. A moment I’d rather much like to forget and one of the final “post sticky stuff, pre adjustment” Gerrit Cole starts of the year.
23. June 3rd vs. Tampa (L 2-9) - 5 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 2 BB,7 K
Cole’s June started and ended with clunkers in important games against division rivals that resulted in 9-2 losses. Here, he failed to secure a series win for the Yankees against the Rays, giving up some loud contact and some more questionable contact aided by poor umpiring, in what was the first sign that this machine might be mortal after all (don’t worry, that was proven incorrect pretty quickly).
22. July 29th @ Tampa (L 0-14) - 5.1 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 10 K
The final start for Cole before going on the COVID IL, this one avoids the bottom spot because the Yankees had already won the series and because they weren’t going to win scoring 0 runs even if Cole had given up only one run. In this start, Cole got bombed early, surrendering a three run home run to Austin Meadows and having his inherited runners score courtesy of Albert Abreu. He did strike out ten still despite his poor performance.
21. July 4th vs. New York (L 5-10) - 3.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 7 K
The lowest point in the Yankees season came when they dropped the first game of a July 4th doubleheader to the Mets, hindered by their ace’s terrible performance. This was Cole’s shortest start of the year by a mile and the wheels came off rather quickly in this one. The Yankees still had a chance to win this one before an Aroldis Chapman meltdown, but Cole’s pitching did them no favors early on.
20. May 17th @ Texas (L 2-5) - 5 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
Cole came into this start with an untouchable 1.37 ERA, seeming like he’d never give up a run again. When he gave up five to Texas, including some hard hit balls, the quick reaction was that he was tipping his pitches - that’s how dominant he had been, as it was impossible to think he was actually having a rough game. This game was the last before the Yankees rotation went on its run of dominance, including the Corey Kluber no hitter and the Jordan Montgomery 11 strikeout game against Chicago.
Tier 2: He Got The Job Done
19. July 23rd @ Boston (L 2-6) 5 IP, 6 IP, 3 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Incredibly, this is the last start on this list where Cole gave up more than three earned runs. In this game, Cole had dominant stuff but the Red Sox worked him hard early and ultimately touched him up in the fifth off a Rafael Devers home run. It wasn’t a bad start, but it was a Bad Cole Start - there’s a huge difference, as you can see by the 18 remaining games on this list.
18. April 18th vs. Tampa (L 2-4) 6.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 10 K
It is insane that this is Cole’s eighteenth best start of the year, but such is the life of a future Cy Young winner. Cole was sharp early on but was probably left in a bit too long by Aaron Boone, who was desperate to avoid a sweep at the hands of Tampa. Unfortunately, Cole faltered in the seventh and allowed the Rays to take the lead and win the game. Again, this wasn’t a bad start, but Cole did not get the job done when it counted, a rarity for him.
17. April 1st vs. Toronto (L 2-3) 5.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
16. May 6th vs. Houston (L4-7) 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
15. May 28th @ Detroit (L-2-3) 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
14. June 22nd vs. Kansas City (L 5-6) 7 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K
These four starts are all similar - Cole pitched well but not well enough to overcome either a poor offensive performance or a bullpen meltdown by the Yankees. He wasn’t spectacular but any of these starts could have easily been wins. Even when he’s not striking out a bunch of guys, Cole is really effective at limiting baserunners and thus runs, meaning his average starts are much better than many pitchers’ best efforts.
Tier Three: Hey, This Guy’s Kind of Good
13. June 9th @ Minnesota (W 9-6) 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 9 K
We’ve now reached the portion of the program where only Gerrit Cole wins are featured. This one came at the height of the sticky stuff drama, where Josh Donaldson publicly called out Cole for his usage of SpiderTack. Cole put him in his place in this start, with some strikeouts that made him look silly. It was the first sign that Cole was going to be alright after all - and boy, was he ever.
12. June 16th @ Toronto (W 3-2) 8 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
11. April 12th @ Toronto (W 3-1) 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K
The two road starts that Cole has made against the Blue Jays have both been very good and delivered the Yankees a pair of wins without a lot of run support. In Buffalo, although his strikeout stuff wasn’t there, Cole still shut down an imposing Toronto lineup and picked up a win, aided by a late inning Gary Sanchez home run. In Dunedin, Cole was backed by a pair of Kyle Higashioka home runs to get redemption for his Opening Day loss to Toronto and grab a win for the Yankees when they were struggling. These starts are the best examples of Cole still being Really Good without his best stuff - the definition of a true ace.
10. August 21st vs. Minnesota (W 7-1) 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
9. August 27th @ Oakland (W 8-2) 6 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
8. August 16th vs. Los Angeles (W 2-1) 5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
Cole’s three most recent starts have all been excellent, albeit a bit shorter than we know he’s capable of going. We’ll attribute that to the COVID recovery, as nothing about August Gerrit Cole has been anything less than spectacular. He has made big pitches in important spots, specifically against old friend Josh Donaldson in the Minnesota game, and struck out batters at his usual rate. It has fueled the Yankees’ 13 game winning streak to know they have an automatic quality start once every five days.
Tier 4: Cy Cole
7. May 22nd vs. Chicago (W 7-0) 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K
It’s getting harder to separate the Cole outings, but these last seven are the ones that will really make his case for Cy Young. Coming off his first bad start of the year, Cole rebounded in a big way, throwing up seven shutout innings against the best team in the American League at that point. He walked three batters after walking five in the whole year to that point, but got some key ground balls to pick up a few double plays and keep the White Sox off the board. His final pitch of that afternoon to strike out Andrew Vaughn was 101 MPH, a chef’s kiss on a fantastic outing.
6. July 17th vs. Boston (W 3-1) 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 11 K
After his previous struggles against Boston, there was uncertainty with how Cole would fare in his next start against the Red Sox. He put those concerns to bed instantly, striking out 11 in a rain shortened game that the Yankees would win. Coming off one of his more taxing outings of the year (more on that later), Cole showed no ill effects and helped the Yankees pick up their first win against the Sox in eight tries. It was much needed and the first step in their comeback against Boston over the course of July and August.
5. April 30th vs. Detroit (W 10-0) 6 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 12 K
The start that secured Gerrit Cole the April Pitcher of the Month, this one came in a Friday night showdown with an admittedly weak Detroit offense. Cole was still electric in this game and could have gone deeper had the Yankees not already racked up a huge lead. The Tigers couldn’t touch Cole on this night as he pitched up his fourth double digit strikeout game of April.
4. April 6th vs. Baltimore (W 7-2) 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 13 K
This was the first Gerrit F Cole start of the year, as in his second outing, he shoved against Baltimore and showed what was in store for us the rest of the year. This game set Cole’s season high in strikeouts and undersells just how good he was that night - in a closer game later in the year, he could have gotten to 15 or 16 strikeouts. Cole Watch was officially on after this point. It was also, to this point, his best start at Yankee Stadium this year, as the final three starts all came on the road.
Tier 5: The Pantheon
3. April 24th @ Cleveland (W 2-1) 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K
When the story of Gerrit Cole’s 2021 is written, these next three starts will all be at the heart of it. The incredible aspect of all of them, aside from Cole’s pitching, is that he literally had no room for error. This one, our third place finisher, was a pitcher’s duel between Cole and reigning Cy Young winner Shane Bieber in a rematch of the Wild Card Series from 2020. An Aaron Hicks home run gave the Yankees a 2-1 lead and Cole made it stand up, striking out 11 and going toe to toe with Bieber to deliver the Yankees a 2-1 win and a series victory at a time when those were hard to come by.
2. May 12th vs. Tampa (W 1-0) 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 K
For any other pitcher in any other season, this would be hands down their best start. Against their division rivals, Cole went out and threw the game of his life with only one run of support. He mowed down the Tampa offense and threw eight stellar innings to give the Yankees a huge series win. Aroldis Chapman saved the game in the ninth, despite some people saying Cole should have been left in to finish the game. Would he have been able to close it out despite being at 106 pitches? Well, we would soon find out.
1. July 10th @ Houston (W 1-0) 9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 12 K
This is the Gerrit Cole Game. It’s the one we’ll remember for years to come, about how the ace of the Yankees refused to let his manager take the ball from him in the ninth and silenced the best offense in the American League in the Texas summer heat. Cole threw 129 pitches in a throwback effort, going above and beyond what he had to will the Yankees to victory. It was an unbelievable performance and one that only he could deliver, in an era when pitch counts are limited. To make it more unreal, Cole was sick during the week before and had to be given an IV for dehydration. Insane. In the words of Gerrit Cole, “I blacked out and said the F word a lot on the mound”. So did we all, Gerrit. So did we all. Please enjoy the final out of the best pitched game in baseball this season.
That is it, the definitive Gerrit Cole 2021 Start Ranking. When Cole wins the Cy Young, perhaps we’ll update it with his September and October exploits. One thing is for sure: when the Yankees give this man the ball in an important situation, you better believe he’s going to deliver.
