2022-23 Offseason Entrance Survey
The top need for the Yankees is to bring this guy back (Frank Franklin II/AP)
1. Who should be the Yankees’ top free agent target?
Alec: Aaron James Judge. When you win the MVP, set the American League home runs record, and generally have the greatest walk year in professional sports history, it might be beneficial for the team that employs you to bring you back. Without Aaron Judge, the Yankees would have been significantly worse in 2022 and would be significantly worse in 2023. His 11.6 WAR would be impossible to replace from one player and likely hard to replace with multiple players. Yes, he won’t put up that number again, but it’s reasonable to expect a 7-8 WAR season out of him and that is a necessity for this Yankees team. No amount of money is too little to give to Judge - he is the linchpin of the Yankees offense and not re-signing him would be a death blow to this team’s 2023 World Series hopes.
Will: We should’ve excluded Aaron Judge from the list of possible answers because it’s obviously him. I like Trea Turner a lot.
2. Where is the area of greatest need for the Yankees this winter?
Alec: Just as last year, the Yankees need some offensive upgrades. Assuming they resign Judge, they will still need to add at least one outfielder and two infielders. Left handed bats should be a priority for them, as the lineup still leans too right handed with the failure of Joey Gallo to provide left handed balance and the departure of Andrew Benintendi. Thankfully, re-signing Anthony Rizzo was a big step towards achieving these goals, as Rizzo has arguably been their best left handed bat over the last six years. The Yankees will be on the lookout for more left handed bats to fill their positions of need, specifically in the outfield.
Will: I don’t know if Whipple’s roster accounting adds up. Given that Rizzo, Gleyber, DJ, IKF, Peraza, Donaldson, and Cabrera are all on the roster, I think it’s hard to see them getting two infielders. Based on how the question is posed, I’d probably agree that SS and 3B are two major areas of need, I just have trouble imagining that the Yankees will address either one in a satisfactory way. I was really hoping they’d be able to nab Joc Pederson as an impact outfielder, as I agree that’s a key area of need, but he accepted the qualifying offer and will be starting against them on Opening Day.
3. Which big name free agent do you want the Yankees to stay away from?
Alec: Justin Verlander feels like a Randy Johnson redux - quality pitcher that the Yankees sign a year too late. If Verlander truly wants a multi year Max Scherzer style deal, a team would have to bank on his return to form being sustainable as he turns 40 years old next year. Furthermore, they’d have to bank on continued high performance outside of Houston. Do you really trust him to have a 1.8% HR rate again in Yankee Stadium? It’s a high risk, high reward proposition, but the fact that an organization as smart as Houston walked away without even giving the qualifying offer makes one nervous. The Yankees have the pitching to compete right now and any dollar spent should go towards their hitters. Justin Verlander is a risk not worth taking.
Will: Magneuris Sierra.
Kidding. I’d love for them to go after him.
Kidding.
I’ll endorse Whipple’s take on Verlander. Although he was extremely good this year, his production didn’t reek of sustainability, and it’s hard not to be concerned about health and reliability from a guy of his age. No matter where he ends up, he’ll dominate the Yankees at least once next year and we will just have to deal with it. I’ll add JD Martinez and Jose Abreu to this list for similar reasons. We’ve seen them both be great, and even do so recently, but they are both closer to 40 than 30 and the trends aren’t encouraging. Martinez (who I have it on good authority is a Very Nice Guy) has a 116 wRC+ and just 2.8 fWAR in his last 1467 PA. He had a 137 wRC+ prior to 2020. His walk rate was 10.5% from 2016-2019 and has fallen to just 8.8% in his last three seasons. Don’t love the direction these stats are going. Abreu is a fine player, but slugged only .446 (down from .515 on his career) this past year, will be 36 when the season starts, and is a miserable defender.
I get that the Yankees are set at DH and have already addressed first base, but I don’t think these guys are good options and want that take to be on the internet.
Does Chris Bassitt count? If so, Chris Bassitt.
4. If the Yankees pursue any trades, who should they get?
Alec: The Yankees desperately need outfield help and some players on the trade market could be a better fit than those in free agency. Ian Happ is in the last year of his contract and had a 119 OPS+ last year. He is a switch hitter and can also play in the infield, making him an ideal versatile fit for the Yankees. The Diamondbacks have a glut of left handed outfielders that the Yankees could look to pick up, like Jake McCarthy or Alek Thomas. On the higher end side, Bryan Reynolds’s 2022 wasn’t as impressive as the preceding campaign but was still very good - the Yankees could find room for a switch hitting center fielder who had a 126 OPS+ in a down year. Lastly, the Shohei Ohtani elephant in the room looms over all of baseball. If the Yankees could potentially secure his services for a year, they should do everything they can in order to make it happen. There would be no bigger upgrade this winter.
Will: The Yankees should trade Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar (Estevan Florial too if they’re greedy) for Shohei Ohtani.
I liked Happ at the trade deadline and still do. Jesse Winker is an interesting buy low candidate. After putting up a 132 wRC+ and scaring .300/.400/.500 from 2017 to 2021, he fell off a cliff in Seattle and posted a 108 wRC+. His 15.4% (!!!!!) walk rate buoyed him in spite of his awful .219/.344/.344 line, and even though his hard hit rate, average exit velo, and xwOBA fell to uncharacteristically low levels, he still underachieved this year relative to his expected statistics.
The Yankees should also pursue some aspirational trades. There’s no reason they shouldn’t be in on any Ohtani discussions. They should see what it would take to get Aaron Nola out of Philadelphia. They should check in with the Padres and see who they’d be willing to part with, from Ha-Seong Kim to Manny Machado to Yu Darvish. Everything should be in play this offseason.
5. Who is one current Yankee who should be traded?
Alec: The Yankees need to trade Josh Donaldson and Aaron Hicks this winter, but that seems to be a consensus opinion. The rumor mill is churning around the middle infield spots, but I’ll focus on an area that’s less obvious - the bullpen. The early signings and trades have indicated that the bullpen market is running hot this offseason and if the Yankees have a chance to capitalize, they absolutely should. Rafael Montero just got an $11 million dollar per year contract and Erik Swanson netted a legitimate middle of the order bat in Teoscar Hernandez. If the Yankees feel they have a market for Wandy Peralta, Jonathan Loisaga or even Clay Holmes, they should cash in if the return is strong enough. We’ve seen the Yankees produce quality reliever after quality reliever and I have no doubt they’d be able to withstand any bullpen loss if they can upgrade the rest of the team.
Will: The Yankees should not dream of moving Loaisiga or Holmes. I understand we feel like they just create elite relievers out of mid-air, but for every Loaisiga there is a Castro and for every Holmes there is a Chapman. We can (and should) celebrate the successes, but the hit rate here is not 100%. I like the logic but hate how it would look in practice for the Yankees.
Josh Donaldson desperately needs to be traded, but after he was salary dumped on the Yankees prior to the 2022 season, it’s not obvious to me they could pay that salary dump forward and convince any team to pay even a cent of JD’s contract.
Hicks, on the other hand, has an interesting case as a Guy With Value. $10M a year is hardly anything for most teams, and for a guy who will walk a ton and is projected to post a 103 wRC+ and has been a Very Good Defender in left field (I know), he could get the Yankees something in return, especially if he’s packaged with an intriguing prospect.
I’d love for them to trade IKF, but hardly see it happening. If they did, it would be more of an admission of guilt than a valuable strategic move, because he won’t get them anything.
Any takers on Frankie Montas?
6. Who is one current Yankee who should get a greater opportunity in 2023?
Alec: Count me in on team Clarke Schmidt, 5th Starter. Schmidt posted a 3.12 ERA in 57 innings as a multi inning swingman out of the bullpen and generally impressed in his rookie season. The Yankees trusted him enough to go to him in tight spots, and while that burned them occasionally in October, it was generally a positive development. Schmidt was a starter in the minors and absolutely has the repertoire to start games in the bigs. Instead of running it back with Domingo German, the Yankees should slot Schmidt into the best rotation in baseball and finally see what they have in him.
Will: I mean, is there any question it’s Oswald Peraza? In his time with the Yankees this past year, he was a 4.6 fWAR/650 player and posted a 146 wRC+. He also walked nearly 11% of the time and showed a good ability to make contact (for the people who care about that). The SLG tool will develop, just as it did after his move to AAA, and at the end of the day, he can’t be worse than IKF. He’s a solid-to-very-good defender at SS whose bat is going to be somewhere between good enough and good at the MLB level. If Peraza is healthy on the bench on Opening Day and IKF is at SS, the Yankees messed up.
7. If the Yankees don’t do…..this winter, then they will have failed.
Alec: Re-sign Aaron Judge. Other than that, they need to shake up this offense in two ways - bringing in a left handed hitter and unloading Josh Donaldson and Aaron Hicks (and possibly IKF). If all three of those players are still on the team in Spring Training and the Yankees did not add any left handed hitters to their lineup, this team will essentially have conceded that their end of 2022 offense was good enough and will likely be burned by the regression monster. In the less important but still necessary category, the team should make a decision about whether Volpe and Peraza are going to be key players for this team and if they decide against it, go out and acquire actual offensive upgrades. Running the stopgap plan again in the middle infield would be a disaster.
Will: If the Yankees don’t bring back Aaron Judge they have not only failed to have a successful offseason, but failed to get me to watch or attend any of their games ever again.
8. What is your ideal Yankees offseason? What is your realistic Yankees offseason?
Alec: Ideal offseason: Re-sign Judge and Rizzo, sign Trea Turner and Brandon Nimmo. Sign Carlos Rodon. Unload Josh Donaldson and Aaron Hicks for any cost savings you can get. Because of the uncertainty surrounding DJ LeMahieu, I would be ok with bringing Volpe, Cabrera, Peraza, Turner and Gleyber to camp. Also IKF needs to be strictly confined to the bench but with that infield group I’d think that would happen.
Realistic offseason: Re-sign Judge and Rizzo. Re-sign Andrew Beintendi. Trade an infielder for a starting pitcher or third baseman. Still trade Donaldson and Hicks. Potentially trade a bullpen arm for prospects. Enjoy being the best team in the AL East even though almost no one will concede that this is true.
Will: Ideal Offseason
Sign: Judge, Turner, Rodon, Masataka Yoshida
Dump: JD, Hicks, IKF
Acquire through trades: Ohtani, Corbin Burnes, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, all the good relievers, Tommy Kahnle (welcome back, king)
Resurrect: Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Yogi Berra
Apply Anti-Aging Technology to: Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Bernie Williams
Fight: Pedro Martinez, a wolf
Realistic Offseason
Sign: Judge, Rizzo, Rodon, Haniger
Trade/Otherwise Rid Themselves Of: Donaldson, Hicks
Trade for: an underwhelming infielder, a reliever, a 7th starter
As Whipple said, that’s the best team in the AL East, it’s just not a team I feel guarantees the Yankees a World Series, which is the kind of team they need to build.
