Leading Off: Tampa Bay Rays
Gio and Gary are psyched not to be playing this series at the Trop (Kim Klement / USA TODAY Sports)
Weak Week
The Yankees stumble home for this weekend series against the Rays as the losers in five of their last seven games. Somehow, this is not close to unprecedented for this group. Last year alone, they finished the season losing six of their final eight games, lost seven of eight to start September, and lost seven in a row in August. That team was a properly-utilized Deivi Garcia away from playing for the AL Pennant. Let’s not overreact to this.
Steady Arms
We need not delve into the nightmare that we’ve collectively endured in starts from Kluber, Taillon, and German this year. Instead, the Yankees will put forth their best (it’s about to get weird) in this series, apparently starting Mike King (told you) on Friday, followed by Jordan Montgomery and Gerrit Cole.
In six games this year (five starts), those three have combined to pitch 35 innings, and allow only 22 hits and 7 runs (1.79 ERA, 0.80 WHIP), while striking out 43 (11 K/9). Together, they’ve produced around the level of 1997 Pedro Martinez, and all that guy did was win the Cy Young and finish fifth in the MVP voting. King, Montgomery, and Cole are the only Yankees pitchers who have scoreless appearances of 6 IP or more this year. Look for them to continue their strong starts and change the tone of these first couple of weeks.
Protect This House
Last year, the Yankees had a .710 winning percentage at home, and a measly .379 winning percentage on the road. In 2019, they played to a similar .704 clip at home, and .568 on the road. Thus far this year, the Yankees are 3-3 at home and 2-4 on the road. Of course we will see some regression (or progression, as it were), to the mean with this team. I don’t think any of us expects them to struggle this much for the whole season. Establishing dominance at home, especially against a strong division opponent, would be a nice way for the Bombers to get a run going.
You Can’t Hide
The Yankees avoided Tyler Glasnow in the series at the Trop, but can’t escape him this time. The 6’8” right-hander has been a thorn in the Yankees’ side of late, and it’s hard to see that changing any time soon. In 2020, Glasnow held the Yankees to a triple slash of .173/.267/.346, for an OPS of .613. In what was basically the worst season in recorded history last year, Gary Sanchez had an OPS of .618. Tyler Glasnow turns batters into something worse than 2020 Gary Sanchez. He’s seriously good. He dominated the Rangers his last time out, picking up his first win of the year in a start of 7.2 IP in which he allowed only 2 H and 1 BB while striking out 14. I meant it when I said he’s seriously good.
The Yankees also figure to face Ryan Yarbrough in this series for the first time this year. Yarbrough had a sparkling start in Tampa’s second game of the year, pitching 5.2 scoreless innings (65 pitches) and surrendering only 4 H without walking a batter. As the Rays have stretched him out, his performance has declined. In a game against the Red Sox on April 7, he allowed 9 H and 9 R (6 ER) over 5 IP, and followed that up by allowing 10H and 6 R on Tuesday. Despite his recent struggles, Yarbrough has found a great deal of success against the Yankees in his career. In 6 games, he has held them to a triple slash of .200/.302/.400 for an OPS of .702, and pitched to a 3.15 ERA. The closest 2019 comparison I have for that is Jurickson Profar, who slashed .218/.301/.410 for a .711 OPS. Not great!
If they’re lucky, the Yankees will face Michael Wacha in this series as well. Back on April 11, Wacha relieved Brent Honeywell, and proceeded to get smacked around for an inning in which he allowed three runs before settling in. The highlight of that game was this 453-foot BOMB by Gio Urshela that broke part of the batter’s eye in Tampa.
Yankee Killers
Much like the Blue Jays, the Rays are absolutely lousy with Yankee Killers.
I don’t need to tell you about Randy Arozarena, who has a 1.056 OPS against the Yankees in the regular season in his career, and is hitting .421/.476/.895 for a 1.371 OPS against them in the postseason. When you get a chance though, check out Babe Ruth’s 1920 season. He was ALDS Randy Arozarena for an entire year.
Austin Meadows had a down year in 2020, but earned his stripes as a Yankee Killer in 2019, slashing .310/.403/.603 for a 1.006 OPS (this is basically Mike Trout’s career stat line), and he’s picked that up again this year, going 4-for-11 (.364) with a 2B and a HR (1.261 OPS) in the first series against the Yankees.
Noted Cole Killer Ji-Man Choi is on the IL for at least 3 more weeks, so he won’t be there to torture Gerrit this series, and fellow Yankee Killer Kevin Kiermaier (this blog hates Kevin Kiermaier, it’s a condition for having the login) is on the IL with him.
Open The Stable
Kevin Cash’s “stable of guys who throw 98” has not functioned as intended so far this year, with the bullpen pitching to an ERA of 6.14 and striking out only 21.6% of batters over 44 innings.
On the other hand, going into Wednesday’s game, Yankees relievers were pitching to a 1.84 ERA and striking out 34.8% of batters faced. If the series comes down to a bttle of the bullpens, the Yankees are positioned well to win.
Watch Out For Fireworks
It wouldn’t surprise me to see tempers flare in this series. We know the Yankees are mad at the Rays for years of apparently-intentional HBPs and their consistent refusal to stop throwing up and in despite being unable to control those pitches. We know the Rays are mad at the Yankees for repeatedly hitting Joey Wendle (is this really the guy you’d hit on purpose?) and Austin Meadows (this is really the guy you’d hit on purpose). Kevin Cash has never seen one of his guys get hit without thinking it was intentional, but either way, the groundwork is there for something to boil over.
Turn It Around
Glasnow, Cole, HBPs, fights, Arozarena… None of it matters as much as the Yankees winning a series and righting the ship. Divisions are neither won nor lost in April, but it would feel awfully nice to start off the tough 9-game stretch that’s coming (3 vs TB, 2 vs ATL, 4 @ CLE) on the right foot.
We’ll have another installment of Batting Cleanup after the series wraps up on Sunday. Let’s go Yankees.
All stats come from Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, and MLB Statcast
